000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110245
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED AUG 11 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 10N86W TO 14N105W TO 13N117W TO 11N130W TO 
10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE 
AXIS BETWEEN 97W AND 117W...AND WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE AXIS W OF 
136W.
 
...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED W OF THE AREA NEAR 18N153W 
JUST SE OF THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
THIS ANTICYCLONE ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 14N140W 
REACHING TO NEAR 11N134W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 
NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR SAN FRANCISCO BAY TO 32N128W TO 24N132W 
TO 19N140W. VERY DRY AIR UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS 
PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA N OF THE ITCZ AND W OF 122W AS SHOWN IN 
BOTH THE WATER VAPOR AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER SATELLITE 
IMAGERY. 

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER NW MEXICO NEAR 
27N109W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA 
CALIFORNIA TO NEAR 20N127W WITH A COL JUST SW OF THERE. THERE IS 
ABUNDANT MOISTURE S AND SW OF THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE...HOWEVER 
STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT DOMINATE THE NORTH PORTION OF THIS 
AREA. THE 1008 MB REMNANT LOW OF ESTELLE IS EMBEDDED IN THIS 25 
TO 30 KT UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND THE MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY ASSOCIATED WITH ESTELLE HAS DISSIPATED.

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE NW WATERS 
EXTENDING FROM 1032 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED WELL NW OF THE AREA 
NEAR 44N143W. THE RIDGE ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 31N140W 
AND CONTINUES THROUGH 18N120W. DIURNALLY ENHANCED NW TO N WINDS 
OF 20 KT WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR N OF 24N WITHIN 120 NM OF THE W 
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING THE EVENING HOURS THROUGH THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS DUE TO A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND 
TROUGHING IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.

A 1007 MB AREA OF LOW PRES LIES TO THE NE TO E OF THE REMNANT 
LOW OF ESTELLE NEAR 18.4N 108.0W. ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
NOTED WITH THIS LOW. THE REMNANT LOW OF ESTELLE IS FORECAST TO 
MERGE WITH THIS LOW DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN WILL LINGER 
OVER THE SAME ARE THROUGH 48 HOURS. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF 20 TO 
25 KT AT THE SURFACE IS FEEDING INTO THIS AREA WHICH IS 
RESULTING IN 8 TO 11 FT COMBINED SEAS AND THESE 20 TO 25 KT 
WINDS WILL PERSIST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A NEW SET OF LONG PERIOD SW SWELL TO 8 FT WILL MOVE INTO THE SE 
WATERS FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE E OF 86W BY 48 HOURS.

$$
LEWITSKY