000
AXPZ20 KNHC 102026
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE AUG 10 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1945 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG AN 
AXIS FROM 11N86W TO 14N105W TO 12N122W TO 11N130W TO 10N140W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION LIES WITHIN 60 NM N OF AXIS E OF 
90W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 93W AND 115W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...

VERY DRY AIR UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS PRESENT 
ACROSS THE AREA N OF THE ITCZ AND W OF 122W AS SHOWN IN BOTH THE 
WATER VAPOR AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER SATELLITE IMAGERY. AN 
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED W OF THE AREA NEAR 18N152W. 
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THIS ANTICYCLONE TO 15N140W AND NE 
TO A SECOND ANTICYCLONE OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO NEAR 28N107W. A 
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE LIES AROUND 20N130W WHERE A WEAK TROUGH 
AXIS EXTENDS SOUTH ALONG 130W FROM THE MAJOR TROUGH AXIS LOCATED 
N OF THE AREA FROM SAN FRANCISCO BAY TO 34N130W TO AN UPPER LOW 
NEAR 37N149W. 

A SURFACE RIDGE FROM 28N140W TO 22N115W DOMINATES THE NORTHERN 
WATERS. DIURNALLY ENHANCED NW WINDS OF 20 KT WILL OCCUR OFF OF 
THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA N OF 24N MAINLY DURING THE 
EVENING HOURS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT IS 
GREATEST BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGHING NEAR THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA.

THE AXIS OF A BROAD MID LEVEL CYCLONIC GYRE LIES FROM NEAR 
18N116W TO 16N102W TO 10N90W. REMNANT LOW ESTELLE LIES NEAR 
17N113W...WITHIN THE REGION OF THIS GYRE. THERE IS ABUNDANT 
MOISTURE HERE ACCORDING TO PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY...BUT 
STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE 
ANTICYCLONE OVER MEXICO DOMINATE THE NORTH PORTION OF THIS AREA. 
THE 1008 MB REMNANT LOW OF ESTELLE IS EMBEDDED IN THIS 25 TO 30 
KT UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND THE SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW IS SKEWED WITHIN 210 NM W QUADRANT. A 
STRONGER LOW PRES SYSTEM LIES TO THE EAST OF REMNANT LOW ESTELLE 
NEAR 18N108B. CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF THIS 1007 MB LOW HAS 
DIMINISHED OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. THESE AREAS OF LOW PRES ARE 
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MERGE AND LINGER OVER THIS REGION FOR THE 
NEXT FEW DAYS. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FEEDING INTO THIS BROAD AREA 
OF LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE WHICH 
WILL HELP KEEP SEAS HIGHER THAN NORMAL HERE.

$$
SCHAUER/LEWITSKY