000
AXPZ20 KNHC 101528
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE AUG 10 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

AT 10/1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF RECENTLY DOWNGRADED REMNANT LOW 
ESTELLE IS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 112.9W MOVING TOWARD THE EAST OR 
90 DEGREES AT 2 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN ONLY BE FOUND BETWEEN 45 NM 
AND 120 NM W QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. ESTELLE LIES UNDER STRONG 
SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR THAT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVER 
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND INHIBIT ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. SEE THE 
LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ON ESTELLE UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG 11N86W TO 
16N103W TO 12N109W TO 10N130W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION LIES WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 89W AND 
95W AND ELSEWHERE WITHIN 270 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 92W AND 95W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALSO LIES WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF AXIS W OF 138W.
 
...DISCUSSION...

VERY DRY AIR UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS PRESENT 
ACROSS THE AREA N OF THE ITCZ AND W OF 122W AS SHOWN IN BOTH THE 
WATER VAPOR AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER SATELLITE IMAGERY. AN 
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED NEAR 17N150W. AN UPPER RIDGE 
EXTENDS FROM THIS ANTICYCLONE TO 16N138W AND NE TO A SECOND 
ANTICYCLONE OVER N CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 27N105W. A WEAKNESS IN 
THE RIDGE LIES AROUND 20N130W WHERE A WEAK TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS 
SOUTH ALONG 129W/130W FROM THE MAJOR TROUGH AXIS LOCATED N OF 
THE AREA FROM SAN FRANCISCO BAY TO 34N130W TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 
37N150W. 

THE AXIS OF A BROAD MID LEVEL CYCLONIC GYRE LIES FROM NEAR 
REMNANT LOW ESTELLE TO 16N106W AND SOUTHEAST TO 07N88W. THERE IS 
ABUNDANT MOISTURE HERE ACCORDING TO PRECIPITABLE WATER 
IMAGERY...BUT STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ALOFT ON THE SOUTHWEST 
SIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONE OVER MEXICO DOMINATE THE NORTH PORTION 
OF THIS AREA. TROPICAL DEPRESSION ESTELLE IS EMBEDDED IN THIS 25 
TO 30 KT UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION CAN ONLY BE FOUND BETWEEN 45 NM AND 120 NM W QUADRANT 
OF THE SYSTEM. A LARGER AREA OF CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND WITH THE 
LOW PRES SYSTEM TO THE EAST OF REMNANT LOW ESTELLE. THIS 1007 MB 
LOW IS NEAR 18N107W AND HAS SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 270 NM W QUADRANT. THE VORTICITY CENTERS 
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE TWO AREAS OF LOW PRES ARE EXPECTED TO 
MERGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE NORTHERN WATERS ORIGINATING FROM 
1031 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED WELL NW OF THE AREA NEAR 45N143W AND 
ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 28N140W AND CONTINUING TO 
24N115W. DIURNALLY ENHANCED NW WINDS OF 20 KT WILL OCCUR OFF OF 
THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA N OF 24N MAINLY DURING THE 
EVENING HOURS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT IS 
GREATEST BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGHING NEAR THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA.

$$
SCHAUER/LEWITSKY