000
AXPZ20 KNHC 092134
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON AUG 09 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

AT 09/2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ESTELLE IS 
LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 112.4W MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES 
AT 3 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. ESTELLE NOW HAS 
CONVECTION W OF THE CENTER. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR 
REMAINS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 17N TO 
19N BETWEEN 113W AND 115W. FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER 
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVE...
NONE.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS LOCATED ALONG 10N75W TO 09N784W TO 12N100W TO 
12N120W TO 11N140W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 
04N TO 09N BETWEEN 81W AND 89W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
FROM 09N TO 15N BETWEEN 100W AND 107W...AND FROM 15N TO 20N 
BETWEEN 109W AND 111W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
FROM 09N TO 12N W OF 137W.   
 
...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED NEAR 17N138W. VERY DRY AIR 
UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA N 
OF THE ITCZ AND W OF 120W AS SHOWN IN THE WATER VAPOR CHANNEL IN 
THE GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY AS WELL AS THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE 
WATER IMAGERY FROM THE POLAR ORBITING SATELLITES. A SHARP UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 32N120W AND CONTINUES 
ALMOST DUE S TO NEAR 23N120W. THE AREA OF TROUGHINESS SEPARATES 
THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE NOTED ABOVE FROM ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 22N97W WITH A RIDGE 
AXIS EXTENDING W INTO THE E PACIFIC TO NEAR 20N118W. TROPICAL 
DEPRESSION ESTELLE IS EMBEDDED IN THE FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL 
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO THE SW OF THIS ANTICYCLONE WHICH HAVE 
TAKEN A TOLL ON THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.

AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE DOMINATES THE NORTHERN WATERS 
ORIGINATING FROM A 1032 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED WELL NW OF THE 
AREA NEAR 42N145W ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA AT 32N138W AND 
CONTINUING THROUGH 24N122W. DIURNALLY ENHANCED NW WINDS TO 20 KT 
WILL OCCUR WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA 
FROM 25N TO 28N...MAINLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS...THROUGH THE 
NEXT TWO DAYS.

A WELL-DEVELOPED MONSOON TROUGH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE 
WIDESPREAD AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION FROM AROUND 115W EASTWARD TO 
CENTRAL AMERICA.  SOUTH OF THE ITCZ...SW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT 
BETWEEN 100W AND 125W AS CAPTURED BY ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS. 
COMBINED SEAS ARE 8 TO 12 FT ACROSS THIS SAME AREA DUE TO THE 
COMBINATION OF LONG PERIOD SW SWELL AND FRESHLY GENERATED WIND 
SEAS. THIS OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST DURING THE NEXT 
FEW DAYS. 

CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELLS DOMINATING THE MAJORITY OF THE 
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST WATERS WILL 
GRADUALLY DECAY ON WED. A NEW SWELL TRAIN WITH PERIODS OF 14 TO 
16 SECONDS IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 105W AND 
125W TODAY...THEN WILL SPREAD OVER MOST OF THE BASIN S OF 13N TO 
15N BY LATE TUE.

$$
FORMOSA