000
AXPZ20 KNHC 091600
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON AUG 09 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

AT 09/1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE IS 
LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 112.3W MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES 
AT 3 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. ESTELLE IS NOW 
COMPLETELY EXPOSED DUE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR. 
CONVECTION IS WELL W OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM 17N TO19N BETWEEN 113W AND 114W. FURTHER 
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND ESTELLE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TODAY. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVE...
NONE.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS LOCATED ALONG 10N72W TO 08.5N79W TO 10N88W TO 
14N97W TO 17N107W...THEN BEGINS ANEW FROM 14N109W TO 13N114W TO 
12.5N120W TO 10N133W TO 11N138W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS AND WITHIN 240 NM S 
OF AXIS E OF 120W.
 
...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED NEAR 17N138W. VERY DRY AIR 
UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA N 
OF THE ITCZ AND W OF 120W AS SHOWN IN THE WATER VAPOR CHANNEL IN 
THE GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY AS WELL AS THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE 
WATER IMAGERY FROM THE POLAR ORBITING SATELLITES. A SHARP UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 32N120W AND CONTINUES 
ALMOST DUE S TO NEAR 23N120W. THE AREA OF TROUGHINESS SEPARATES 
THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE NOTED ABOVE FROM ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL MEXICAN BORDER NEAR 22N97W WITH 
A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING W INTO THE E PACIFIC TO NEAR 20N118W. 
TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE IS EMBEDDED IN THE FAIRLY STRONG UPPER 
LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO THE SW OF THIS ANTICYCLONE WHICH 
HAVE TAKEN A TOLL ON THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.

AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE DOMINATES THE NORTHERN WATERS 
ORIGINATING FROM A 1032 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED WELL NW OF THE 
AREA NEAR 41N147W ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA AT 32N140W AND 
CONTINUING THROUGH 25N120W. DIURNALLY ENHANCED NW WINDS TO 20 KT 
WILL OCCUR WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA 
FROM 24N TO 28N...MAINLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS...THROUGH THE 
NEXT TWO DAYS.

A WELL-DEVELOPED MONSOON TROUGH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE 
WIDESPREAD AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION FROM AROUND 115W EASTWARD TO 
CENTRAL AMERICA.  SOUTH OF THE ITCZ...SW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT 
BETWEEN 100W AND 125W AS CAPTURED BY ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS. 
COMBINED SEAS ARE 8 TO 12 FT ACROSS THIS SAME AREA DUE TO THE 
COMBINATION OF LONG PERIOD SW SWELL AND FRESHLY GENERATED WIND 
SEAS. THIS OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST DURING THE NEXT 
FEW DAYS. 

CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELLS DOMINATING THE MAJORITY OF THE 
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST WATERS WILL 
GRADUALLY DECAY ON WED. A NEW SWELL TRAIN WITH PERIODS OF 14 TO 
16 SECONDS IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 105W AND 
125W TODAY...THEN WILL SPREAD OVER MOST OF THE BASIN S OF 13N TO 
15N BY LATE TUE.

$$
FORMOSA