000 AXPZ20 KNHC 062152 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC FRI AUG 06 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... AT 06/2100 UTC...NEWLY NAMED TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE IS CENTERED NEAR 17.2N 105.0W MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED OVER THE LOW LEVEL CENTER DURING THE DAY YIELDING A CDO TYPE PATTERN WITH SOME BANDING FEATURES NOTED IN THE SOUTHWEST AND NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLES OF THE STORM. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR ESTELLE TO PEAK IN INTENSITY IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. IT IS NOTEWORTHY THAT IT HAS BEEN NEARLY SIX WEEKS SINCE THE LAST NAMED SYSTEM... HURRICANE DARBY...OCCURRED IN THE EAST PACIFIC BASIN. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 10N85W TO 09N101W TO 13N114W TO 09N127W TO 10N132W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 150 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 90W AND 99W...AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 92W AND 98W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 108W AND 112W...WITHIN 150 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 122W AND 130W...AND WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 125W AND 130W. ...DISCUSSION... ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE DOMINATED THE PATTERN OVER THE NW WATERS AND WAS CENTERED NEAR 26N141W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING BEYOND 32N131W. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN TEXAS WITH AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN MEXICO THEN SW ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO THE EAST PACIFIC TO NEAR 19N130W. NEWLY NAMED TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE IS MOVING AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE AND WAS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WHICH IS CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 32N120W AND CONTINUES SW THROUGH 22N130W...THE CONTINUES SW AS AN INVERTED TROUGH TO NEAR 16N140W. VERY DRY AIR ALOFT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA N OF 20N AND W OF 115W. ANOTHER INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N114W TO A SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 18N117W. EASTERLY/ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IN THE DEEP TROPICS S OF 10N. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE RESULTING FROM ITCZ CONVECTION IS BEING ADVECTED TO THE WEST AS A RESULT OF THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY WINDS. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE DOMINATES THE N WATERS MAINLY N OF 18N. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE A LOWER PRES OVER NW MEXICO IS PRODUCING DIURNALLY FORCED NW WINDS OF 20 KT N OF 25N E OF 118W TO THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 14N130W TO 7N138W. NE WINDS OF 20 KT AND SEAS OF 8 FT ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90-120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 08N TO 12N. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE TROUGH MOVES WWD. ITCZ DISTURBANCES ARE GENERATING AN AREA OF S-SW WINDS OF 20 KT MAINLY FROM 03N TO 08N BETWEEN 90W AND 105W. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST BY THE COMPUTER MODELS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS EXTENDING WESTWARD TO 125W IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. REGIONAL SEAS ARE DOMINATED BY LONG PERIOD SW SWELLS OF 15 TO 17 SECONDS RAISING SEAS TO 9 FT MAINLY S OF 12N BETWEEN 100W AND 120W. THE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE BASIN WITH OPEN OCEAN SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT THROUGH 48 HOURS. $$ COBB