000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060337
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI AUG 06 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO HAS 
BECOME BETTER DEFINED AND HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH ORGANIZATION TO BE 
DECLARED A TROPICAL CYCLONE. AT 06/0300 UTC...THE SYSTEM IS 
UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E WHICH IS CENTERED NEAR 
16.0N 102.1W MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT. 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS. THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF A 
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES 
AND NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE DEPRESSION TO MOVE IN 
A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF 
DAYS. ACCORDING TO THE NHC OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST...THE 
DEPRESSION WILL REACH TROPICAL STORM STATUS IN ABOUT 12 HOURS OR 
SO. 

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS ALONG 10N85W TO 14N99W TO 14N103W TO 13N108W TO 
14N114W TO 11N121W TO 10N126W TO 08N136W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 120 NM TO 240 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 91W 
AND 93W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 103W AND 111W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF 
THE AXIS BETWEEN 126W AND 131W...AND WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 125W AND 129W.
 
...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE NW WATERS CENTERED NEAR 
25N140W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING TO 32N137W. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 25N116W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW 
TO 19N130W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SEPARATES THE TWO ANTICYCLONES 
AND RIDGES EXTENDING FROM THE U.S. PACIFIC NW COAST TO THE 
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N121W TO A COL NEAR 23N130W. AN INVERTED 
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 13N134W TO THE COL. VERY DRY AIR ALOFT UNDER 
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA N OF 
20N AND W OF 116W. 

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 19N115W MOVING W AT 15 
TO 20 KT. THE CYCLONE IS WRAPPING MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE 
CIRCULATION. AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CIRCULATION TO 
A SMALLER CIRCULATION ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE SOUTHERN 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA NEAR 25N108W. 

EASTERLY/ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA IN THE DEEP TROPICS S OF 10N. UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE RESULTING FROM ITCZ CONVECTION IS BEING ADVECTED TO THE 
WEST AS A RESULT OF THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY WINDS.

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 14N130W TO 
09N134W. 20 KT NE WINDS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM NW OF THE 
TROUGH AXIS N OF 12N. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE AREA 
N OF 18N W OF 115W.

CROSS EQUATORIAL LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELLS OF 15 TO 17 
SECONDS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BASIN 
MAINLY S OF 10N BETWEEN 100W AND 127W. THE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE 
TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE BASIN WITH OPEN OCEAN SEAS OF 8 TO 9 FT 
THROUGH 48 HOURS.

$$
LEWITSKY/GR