000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051534
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU AUG 05 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 15N100W AND IS MOVING W AT 12 KT. 
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY DISPLACED 
WELL TO THE WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER WITHIN 120-180 NM OF AN 
ARC FROM 19N104W TO 16N104W TO 14N102W. A BURST OF SCATTERED 
STRONG CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY FLARED UP WITHIN 60 NM OF THE  
CENTER IN THE NE QUADRANT AS WELL. SURFACE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT 
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW. CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR 
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL 
DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THERE IS 
A HIGH CHANCE OF THIS LOW BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO 
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS ALONG 0N85W TO 16N107W TO 11N120W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 
09N103W TO 10N108W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 87W AND 91W...AND 
WITHIN 180-210 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 122W AND 135W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE NE WATERS NEAR 22N120W 
WITH A SECOND ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 27N138W. AN INVERTED 
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 15N142W 
AND SEPARATES THE TWO ANTICYCLONES AS IT CONTINUES THROUGH  
20N133W...AND CONNECTS TO A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THROUGH 30N124W.  
THE LARGER AREA N OF 20N W OF 115W WAS CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE 
TO STRONG DRY AIR ALOFT. 

A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 18N113W WAS MOVING W AT 15 TO 
20 KT AND WAS WRAPPING MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE CIRCULATION.
AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE CIRCULATION TO A SMALLER 
CIRCULATION ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 24N106W. 

EASTERLY/ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA IN THE DEEP TROPICS S OF 10N. UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE RESULTING FROM ITCZ CONVECTION IS BEING ADVECTED TO THE 
WEST AS A RESULT OF THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY WINDS. 

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK SURFACE LOW 1007 MB WAS 
CENTERED NEAR 16N109W AND WAS DRIFTING W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 
09N125W TO 13N123W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM W OF TROUGH AXIS FROM 09N TO 12N. 
OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE AREA N OF 18N W OF 115W.

CROSS EQUATORIAL LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELLS OF 16-18 SECONDS 
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BASIN MAINLY S OF 
10N AND W OF 90W. THE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS 
THE BASIN WITH OPEN OCEAN SEAS OF 8 TO 9 FT THROUGH 48 HOURS.

$$
COBB