000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050929
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU AUG 05 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1007 MB LOW IS POSITIONED NEAR 14.5N99.0W AND IS MOVING W AT 
12 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 300 NM IN THE NW QUADRANT OF THE LOW CENTER WITH 20 TO 25 
KT WINDS N OF 14N BETWEEN 94W AND 97W. CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE 
FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND 
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF THIS LOW BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE 
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF 
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS ALONG 09N84W TO 14N97W TO 13N104W TO 13N112W TO 
10N121W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM N OF AXIS E OF 97W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 210 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 116W AND 121W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM S OF 
AXIS E OF 132W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE FAR NW WATERS NEAR 
22N118W WITH SECOND ANTICYCLONE CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE AREA 
NEAR 25N141W. AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ITCZ NEAR 
12N140W TO 20N133W. ANOTHER INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 14N114W 
TO 21N109W.

EASTERLY/ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA IN THE DEEP TROPICS S OF 10N. UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE RESULTING FROM ITCZ CONVECTION IS BEING ADVECTED TO THE 
WEST AS A RESULT OF THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY WINDS. 

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N125W TO 
14N123W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM E 
OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND 220 NM W OF TROUGH AXIS FROM 09N TO 12N.

CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE 
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BASIN MAINLY S OF 10N AND W OF 95W AND 
THEY WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION UP 
TO 8 TO 9 FT THROUGH 48 HOURS.

$$
AL