000
AXPZ20 KNHC 042152
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED AUG 04 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS ALONG 09N78W TO 10N90W TO 13N100W TO 14N110W TO 
10N120W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF COSTA 
RICA FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 84W AND 89W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 101W AND 
107W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 110W AND 125W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N 
TO 12N BETWEEN 128W AND 132W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 134W AND 137W. 
 
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A 1010 MB LOW IS POSITIONED NEAR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AT  
15N95W. THE LOW IS MOVING W-NW AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE CENTER ALONG THE COAST OF S 
MEXICO FROM 13N TO 19N BETWEEN 96W AND 100W. THERE IS A MEDIUM 
CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
NONE.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE FAR NW WATERS NEAR 
24N138W WITH RIDGE EXTENDING TO THE NE TO NEAR 30N127W AND TO 
THE SW TO 18N145W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED W 
OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA PENINSULA NEAR 24N115W. IN BETWEEN 
THE TWO ANTICYCLONES THERE IS A COL AREA. THE ENTIRE AREA N OF 
20N BETWEEN 110W AND 140W HAS STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE.

EASTERLY FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA IN THE DEEP TROPICS S OF 20N. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS FROM 
5N TO 20N E OF 133W DUE TO ITCZ CONVECTION AND CONVECTION FROM 
THE TROPICAL WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE. 

AT THE SURFACE...A 1010 MB LOW IS POSITIONED ON THE ITCZ NEAR 
11N115W...OR ABOUT 650 NM SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA. 20 KT WINDS ARE NOTED S OF THE CENTER. THE LOW IS 
MOVING W-NW AROUND 8 KT AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO 
REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF 
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 129W FROM 8N TO 14N. A 1750 UTC 
ASCAT PASS DEPICTS THE TROUGH AXIS WITH WINDS OF 20 KT S OF 10N. 

CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE 
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BASIN MAINLY S OF 10N AND WILL CONTINUE 
UP TO 8 TO 9 FT THROUGH 48 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA