000
AXPZ20 KNHC 041546
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED AUG 04 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS ALONG 08N78W TO 09N84W TO 12N110W TO 09N135W TO 
10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 150 NM N OF AXIS 
FROM 110W TO 115W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 
NM N AND 90 NM S OF AXIS FROM 116W TO 119W AND 90 NM S OF AXIS 
FROM 121W TO 128W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 120 NM N 
OF AXIS FROM 129W TO 132W.
 
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 96W N OF 12N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. 
NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 13N 
BETWEEN 95W AND 100W. 

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE FAR NW WATERS NEAR 
24N138W WITH RIDGE EXTENDING TO THE NE TO NEAR 30N127W AND TO 
THE SW TO 18N145W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED W 
OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA PENINSULA NEAR 24N115W. IN BETWEEN 
THE TWO ANTICYCLONES THERE IS A COL AREA. THE ENTIRE AREA N OF 
20N BETWEEN 110W AND 140W HAS STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE.

EASTERLY FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA IN THE DEEP TROPICS S OF 20N. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS FROM 
5N TO 20N E OF 133W DUE TO ITCZ CONVECTION AND CONVECTION FROM 
THE TROPICAL WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE. 

AT THE SURFACE...A 1009 MB LOW IS POSITIONED ALONG THE ITCZ 
NEAR 12N115W...OR ABOUT 650 NM SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA. 20 KT WINDS ARE NOTED S OF THE CENTER. THE LOW IS 
MOVING W-NW AROUND 8 KT AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO 
REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF 
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE 
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BASIN MAINLY S OF 10N AND WILL CONTINUE 
UP TO 8 TO 9 FT THROUGH 48 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA