000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040922
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED AUG 04 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS ALONG 09.5N85W TO 08.5N94W TO 13N105W TO 10N117W TO 
10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 
180 NM N OF AXIS AND 120 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 110W AND 117W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM S OF 
AXIS BETWEEN 120W AND 128W.SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 128W AND 
131W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
AXIS W OF 137W. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 96W N OF 13N WITH NUMEROUS MODERATE 
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION N OF 13N BETWEEN 94W AND 100W. 

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE FAR NW WATERS NEAR 
25N136W WITH RIDGE EXTENDING TO THE NE TO NEAR 32N131W AND TO 
THE SW TO 22N140W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED 
OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND HAS A RIDGE AXIS 
EXTENDING SW ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA 
PENINSULA TO NEAR 18N125W. IN BETWEEN THE TWO ANTICYCLONES THERE 
IS AN INVERTED TROUGH THAT REACHES FROM 26N127W TO 10N137W. 

EASTERLY FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA IN THE DEEP TROPICS. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE RESULTING FROM 
ITCZ CONVECTION AND CONVECTION RESULTING FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE 
MENTIONED ABOVE IS BEING ADVECTED TO THE WEST AS A RESULT OF 
THESE EASTERLY WINDS. 

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK AREA OF 1010 MB LOW PRES IS POSITIONED 
ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 13N109W...OR ABOUT 700 NM SOUTH OF THE 
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. RECENT ASCAT PASS INDICATED 20 
KT WINDS FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 110W AND 119W. THIS LOW IS 
PRODUCING AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW. THE LOW IS 
MOVING W-NW AROUND 8 KT AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO 
REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF 
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE 
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BASIN MAINLY S OF 10N AND WILL CONTINUE 
UP TO 8 TO 9 FT THROUGH 48 HOURS.

$$
AL