000
AXPZ20 KNHC 032139
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE AUG 03 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 09N84W TO 08N88W TO 13N101W TO 12N108W TO 
10N116W TO 11N125W TO 10N131W TO 10N137W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 
95W AND 100W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF 
AXIS BETWEEN 108W AND 121W.   

...DISCUSSION...
A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN DOMINATES THE FORECAST REGION 
ALOFT. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE LIES OVER THE NW WATERS NEAR 
24N137W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE TO ITS NE TO 28N125W AS WELL AS TO 
ITS SW BEYOND 17N140W. MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE 
AND IMPLIED DRY AIR MASS IS NOTED MAINLY N OF 15N AND W OF 125W. 
A LARGE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. EXTENDS A 
RIDGE ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE EPAC COVERING THE AREA N OF 10N E 
OF 120W. IN BETWEEN...THERE IS AN INVERTED TROUGH THAT RUNS FROM 
26N124W TO 16N130W. EASTERLY FLOW PREVAILS IN THE DEEP TROPICS. 
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE RESULTING FROM ITCZ CONVECTION IS ADVECTED 
TO THE WEST AS A RESULT OF THE EASTERLY WINDS. 

AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE 1010 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 13N105.5W 
OR ABOUT 455 NM S-SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. DISORGANIZED 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRES 
WHICH IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 8 KT. UPPER-LEVEL 
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THERE 
IS A LOW CHANCE OF THIS DISTURBANCE BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE 
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SW WINDS OF 20 KT ARE NOTED WITHIN 240 
NM SE AND S QUADRANTS OF LOW CENTER...WITH SEAS 8 FT. A RECENT 
ASCAT PASS SHOWS N TO NE WINDS OF 20 KT WITHIN 150 NM NW 
QUADRANT. 

A SURFACE TROUGH...EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ...EXTENDS FROM 13N126W 
TO 07N129W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH AXIS FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 124W AND 
128W. ANOTHER TROUGH...REMNANTS OF A WEAK LOW PRES SYSTEM 
REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST WATERS AND STRETCHES FROM 23N118W TO 
17N120. THE EDGE OF A WINDSAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING CAPTURED 
MAINLY LIGHT WINDS NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS.  

SOUTHERLY CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELLS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE BASIN S 
OF 10N AND SPREAD FURTHER N BEYOND FORECAST PERIOD.

$$
GR