000
AXPZ20 KNHC 031543
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE AUG 03 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 09N85W TO 12N105W TO 08N115W 10N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 150 NM N OF AXIS FROM 103W 
TO 119W AND  WITHIN 200 NM N OF AXIS FROM 123W TO 128W AND 
WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS FROM 136W TO 139W.  

...DISCUSSION...
A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN DOMINATES THE FORECAST REGION 
ALOFT. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 22N137W WITH 
RIDGE EXTENDING NE TO 30N124W. MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL 
SUBSIDENCE AND IMPLIED DRY AIR MASS IN NOTED WITHIN THE RIDGE 
AXIS. A LARGE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. EXTENDS 
A RIDGE ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE EPAC COVERING THE AREA N OF 10N E 
OF 120W. IN BETWEEN...THERE IS AN INVERTED TROUGH THAT RUNS FROM 
26N125W TO 14N127W. EASTERLY FLOW PREVAILS IN THE DEEP TROPICS. 
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE RESULTING FROM ITCZ CONVECTION IS ADVECTED 
TO THE WEST AS A RESULT OF THE EASTERLY WINDS. 

AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE 1010 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 12N103W 
OR ABOUT 435 NM SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS 
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRES WHICH IS 
MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 8 KT. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW 
CHANCE OF THIS DISTURBANCE BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING 
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SW WINDS OF 20 KT ARE NOTED WITHIN 150 NM SE 
AND S QUADRANTS OF LOW CENTER...WITH SEAS 8 FT. 

SOUTHERLY CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELLS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE BASIN S 
OF 10N AND SPREAD FURTHER N BEYOND FORECAST PERIOD.

$$
GR