000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020303
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON AUG 02 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 10N85W TO 10N97W TO 06N108W TO 07N113W THEN FROM 
14N116W TO 10N124W TO 10N140W.  ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 150 NM 
S OF AXIS E OF 93W.  SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS W OF 116W. 


...DISCUSSION...
COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL PATTERN HAS MIXED ARRAY OF CYCLONES AND 
ANTICYCLONES WITH WINDS ALOFT MEANDERING AMONG GYRES AS CLOSE AS 
8-10 DEG DISTANCE FROM EACH OTHER.  MOST STABLE PATTERN IS S OF 
15N E OF 120W WHERE E-NE FLOW BRING ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE 
INTO E PAC ALONG ITCZ AXIS.  WEAK LOW PRES 1007 MB AT 10N100W 
SEEM TO GRAB OPPORTUNITY TO DEVELOP SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION 
MAINLY OVER ITS EASTERN QUADRANT...BUT SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL 
SHEAR SEEMS TO CURTAIL INTENSIFICATION.  AIR MASS REMAINS VERY 
DRY N OF 15N W OF 120W DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE W OF 
WESTERNMOST UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE.  

AT THE SURFACE...WEAK LOW PRES SYSTEM 1007 MB NEAR 19N116W  
MOVES W AND WEAKENS FURTHER INTO A TROUGH WITHIN 24 HRS.  LOW 
PRES 1007 MB AT 10N100W MAINTAINS SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION BUT 
ADVERSE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT ARREST ANY DEVELOPMENT WITH NEXT 
24-48 HRS.  FRESH SE BREEZE WITH 8 FT SEAS NOTED FROM 10N TO 15N 
W OF 137W EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITHIN 24 HRS WITH SOME SWELL 
LINGERING FOR 48 HRS. 

SURFACE HIGH PRES NW OF AREA 1030 MB HAS RIDGE EXTEND SE TO 
18N120W.  SOUTHERLY SWELLS ARE AFFECTING THE REGION S OF 10N 
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY AND MON.

$$
WALLY BARNES