000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010304
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN AUG 01 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0130 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS LIES FROM 09N84W TO 
07N89W TO 06N105W TO 12N115W TO 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION LIES WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS W OF 
130W...WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 117W AND 
123W...AND WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS E OF 92W AS WELL AS 
ELSEWHERE N OF 06N TO THE COAST BETWEEN 80W AND 84W.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...
AN ANTICYCLONE LIES OVER NW WATERS NEAR 18N130W AND EXTENDS A 
RIDGE TO ITS NE TO 30N122W AS WELL AS TO ITS SW THROUGH 16N133W 
TO 12N138W. A REGION OF DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE N OF 15N W OF 120W 
IS BLEMISHED BY A DEEP LAYERED LOW NEAR 20N120W THAT IS LURING 
TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ INTO ITS SOUTHERN SIDE AND 
WRAPPING IT AROUND THE LOW. THE 1007 MB SURFACE REFLECTION OF 
THIS LOW IS SKEWED SOUTHEASTWARD NEAR 17N114W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION LIES WITHIN 330 NM E QUADRANT AND BETWEEN 60 
NM AND 120 NM NW QUADRANT OF THIS LOW. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION CAN ALSO BE FOUND FROM 08N TO 16N BETWEEN 115W AND 
123W ON THE SW SIDE OF THE LOW WHERE MOISTURE IS PLENTIFUL AND 
UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE LIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND LOW ARE 
EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE W OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE SURFACE 
LOW WILL ALSO FOLLOW SUIT. ELSEWHERE...BROAD UPPER LEVEL 
DIFFLUENCE S OF THE RIDGE AXIS IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION FOCUSED ALONG THE ITCZ W OF 130W.

E OF 110W...
CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE ITCZ AND INTO THE 
WESTERN PORTION OF CENTRAL AMERICA IS BEING ENHANCED BY AN 
INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO THE SE OF A TROPICAL WAVE 
ALONG 89W N OF 14N AS WELL AS BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN 
A RIDGE AXIS THAT EXTENDS THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE 
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 16N98W TO 12N102W AND A 30-40 KT 
NORTHEASTERLY JET FOUND S OF 06N E OF 90W AND S OF 10N BETWEEN 
90W AND 100W. A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW LIES UNDER THE NORTHERN EDGE 
OF THIS JET NEAR 09N97W. CONVECTION NEAR THIS LOW HAS DISSIPATED 
AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THE LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER IS BEGINNING TO BECOME ELONGATED FROM THE NE 
TO SW. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY SUN NIGHT AS THE 
RIDGE AXIS RETREATS NORTHWARD AND THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS BECOME 
MORE CONFLUENT.

$$
SCHAUER