000
AXPZ20 KNHC 310315
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT JUL 31 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ANALYZED ALONG A LINE FROM 
09N77W TO 09N90W TO 06N95W TO 18N111W TO 09N120W TO 08N130W TO 
12N138W 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN 78W 
AND 85W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 96 AND 101W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 106W AND 114W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 119W AND 122W...AND 
FROM 09N TO 11N BETWEEN 138W AND 139W. 

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA N OF 22N AND W OF 130W. A 30 TO 50 KT UPPER LEVEL JET 
CONTINUES TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. ELSEWHERE...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE 
COVERS MUCH OF THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 10N W OF 120W. AN UPPER 
LEVEL LOW IS JUST W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 23N118W MOVING W. 
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE S AND E OF THIS CENTER IS ENHANCING 
CONVECTION S OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND OVER W MEXICO W OF 105W.   
NE TO E UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE TROPICAL E PACIFIC FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 10N. 

AT THE SURFACE...AN WEAK 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 10N95W 
WITH CONVECTION WELL N OF THE CENTER. SOME OF THE COMPUTER MODEL 
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE ISTHMUS OF 
TEHUANTEPEC WILL SEEP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
INTO THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS PACIFIC LOW. THE PASSAGE OF THE 
SHORTWAVE ENERGY HAS BROUGHT N TO NE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 
25 KT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THAT ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH 
TO BELOW 20 KT IN 24 HOURS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED S OF 
BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM 22N111W TO 12N111W WITH CONVECTION. 
SOUTHERLY SWELLS TO 10 FEET ARE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN 
PORTIONS OF THE TROUGH. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS FURTHER W 
ALONG 14N136W 09N139W WITH CONVECTION. A PATCH OF 10 FT SEAS ARE 
NW OF THE TROUGH AXIS.  

$$
FORMOSA