000
AXPZ20 KNHC 262154
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON JUL 26 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 09N80W TO 11N90W TO 10N101W TO 11N115W TO 11N140W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM 
OF AXIS E OF 90W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS 
NOTED WITHIN 30 NM N AND 150 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 91W AND 132W,

...DISCUSSION...
REINFORCED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA HAS 
BROADENED PAST 36 HOURS...AND NOW EXTENDS FROM A BROAD BASE NEAR 
32N138W TO 21N130W. DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING RIDGE HAS GRADUALLY 
WEAKENED AND IS BECOMING MORE NE TO SW ELONGATED...WITH UPPER 
ANTICYCLONE NOW CENTERED AT 27N115W. A NARROW MID TO UPPER 
TROUGH N OF 24N AND ALONG 131/132W SEPARATED THE AFOREMENTIONED 
HIGH WITH A SECOND ANTICYCLONE OVER MEXICO NEAR 24N105W...AND 
WAS EVACUATING LARGE AMOUNTS OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND MID TO 
UPPER MOISTURE WWD OVER THE EPAC. DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS 
PREVAILED ACROSS THE REGION N OF 20N W OF 112W AND FROM 15N TO 
20N W OF 130W DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE.

ZONAL EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS REMAINDER OF BASIN S OF 20N E 
OF 130W IS ALSO ADVECTS ABUNDANT CONVECTIVE DEBRIS ALONG ITCZ 
WESTWARD TO 130W. MAIN FORCING MECHANISM ACROSS THIS REGION 
REMAINS LLVL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ITCZ E OF 130W. THE REMNANTS 
OF TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL CARIBBEAN PAST 24 HOURS 
HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED OF SURFACE MAP AS A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 
88/89W...WHERE SOME CYCLONIC TURNING IS EVIDENT IN VIS SATELLITE 
IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING WAS 
ALSO NOTED SW OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE 
CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY SPIN UP A CIRCULATION WITH POSSIBLE 
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT FROM THIS FEATURE DURING NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...BROAD 1030 MB HIGH PRES WELL NW-N OF 
AREA HAS RIDGE EXTENDING SE-S TO 15N118W.  FRESH NW BREEZE 
FUNNELS ALONG W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM 24N TO 
28N.  ADDITIONALLY WEAK 1009 MB LOW PRES OVER LAND IN CENTRAL 
MEXICO AT 27N109W TIGHTEN PRES GRADIENT OVER GULF OF CALIFORNIA 
AND PROMPTS FRESH S BREEZE TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT 12-18 HRS 
THEN DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT.

FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER SUBTROPICAL SE PAC CONTINUE TO 
GENERATE LONG PERIOD SE SWELL ENCROACHING INTO E PAC S OF 10N 
WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 9 FT THROUGHOUT FORECAST PERIOD. 

$$
STRIPLING