000
AXPZ20 KNHC 261549
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON JUL 26 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 11N86W TO 07N102W TO 12N132W TO 12N140W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF AXIS E OF 
115W.

...DISCUSSION...
REINFORCED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM 32N138W TO 23N140W ABLE TO 
PUSH EASTWARD AGAINST PREVIOUSLY STATIONARY RIDGE.  RIDGE ANCHOR 
...LARGE ANTICYCLONE NOW AT 26N115W...FORCED NE ALLOWS FOR LARGE 
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE TO ENTER E PAC AS FAR N AS 20N.  DRY AND 
STABLE AIR MASS DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE TROUGH DOMINATES REGION N OF 20N W OF 112W AND FROM 15N 
TO 20N W OF 130W.

ZONAL EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS REMAINDER OF BASIN ADVECTS 
ABUNDANT CONVECTIVE DEBRIS ALONG ITCZ WESTWARD TO 138W.  LACK OF 
SURFACE LIFTING MECHANISM INHIBITS ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP 
CONVECTION.  INTRODUCTION OF SURFACE TROUGH ALONG COAST OF 
GUATEMALA MIGHT CHANGE THAT AS IT INTERACTS WITH WEAK LOW/MID 
LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING EMBEDDED ALONG ITCZ FROM 100W TO 110W.  
SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SPIN CIRCULATION WITH POSSIBLE TROPICAL 
DEVELOPMENT FROM THIS FEATURE DURING NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ALTHOUGH 
PRES REMAINS HIGH AND WATER TEMPERATURES MARGINAL.  UPPER LEVEL 
ENVIRONMENT IS NOT ENTIRELY FAVORABLE EITHER.  NEVERTHELESS 
FRESH SW BREEZE IS OCCURRING FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 90W AND 
100W.

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...BROAD 1030 MB HIGH PRES WELL NW-N OF 
AREA HAS RIDGE EXTENDING SE-S TO 15N118W.  FRESH NW BREEZE 
FUNNELS ALONG W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM 24N TO 
28N.  ADDITIONALLY WEAK 1009 MB LOW PRES OVER LAND IN CENTRAL 
MEXICO AT 27N109W TIGHTEN PRES GRADIENT OVER GULF OF CALIFORNIA 
AND PROMPTS FRESH S BREEZE TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT 12-18 HRS 
THEN DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT.

FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER S PAC CONTINUE TO GENERATE LONG 
PERIOD SE SWELL ENCROACHING INTO E PAC S OF 10N WITH SEAS AS 
HIGH AS 9 FT THROUGHOUT FORECAST PERIOD. 

$$
WALLY BARNES