000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260258
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON JUL 26 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0215 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ANALYZED ALONG 09N79W TO 08N83W TO 09N88W TO 09N103W TO 
13N113W TO 12N118W TO 13N136W TO 12N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS E OF 97W. 
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED 
WITHIN 30 NM N AND 150 NM S OF AXIS FROM 104W TO 111W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 45 NM N AND 90 NM S OF AXIS 
FROM 113W TO 134W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTS OVER NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF BASIN 
FROM MID LEVEL VORTEX NEAR 32N126W S THEN S-SW TO 21N130W...AND 
WAS BEING NUDGED SE BY A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE W...BUT HALTED 
FROM MUCH FURTHER EWD PROGRESS N OF 24N BY A STUBBORN RIDGE 
ANCHORED BY TWO ANTICYCLONES...ONE TO THE E AND ANOTHER TO THE 
S. FIRST UPPER HIGH WAS CENTERED NEAR 27N115W AND EXTENDED N-NE 
INTO SRN CALIFORNIA AND WRN ARIZONA...AND ALSO EXTENDED IN A 
NARROW RIDGE SW...WHERE IT CONNECTED TO A SECOND WEAKER HIGH 
NEAR 19N144W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDING AIR GENERALLY 
DOMINATES THIS REGION N OF 20N W OF 115W AND FROM 16N TO 20N 
BETWEEN W OF 125W. 

A VERY NARROW MID TO UPPER TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE ARIZONA-NEW 
MEXICO BORDER S ALONG 110W THEN THAN SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAJA 
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THIS SEPARATED THE RIDGE TO THE W FROM A 
THIRD UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER W CENTRAL MEXICO THAT 
EXTENDED A RIDGE E TO THE E COAST OF MEXICO AND WAS AIDING IN 
PRODUCING A BROAD ZONE OF UPPER LEVEL EASTERLIES S OF THE 
RIDGES...AND ADVECTING ENORMOUS AMOUNTS OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND 
MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM FAR W PORTIONS OF THE ATLC 
BASIN...CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO...WESTWARD ACROSS THE 
TROPICAL EPAC TO 135W. 

AN ELONGATED AND WEAK LLVL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CONTINUES JUST N 
OF THE ITCZ TO ABOUT 20N BETWEEN 105W AND 125W...WHERE SOME 
COMPUTER MODELS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT LOW 
TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. GOOD LLVL ANTICYCLONIC 
FLOW INTO THE S SIDE OF THE ITCZ THERE WAS PROVIDING THE FORCING 
FOR THIS SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION...AND WAS INDUCING DIVERGENT 
FLOW ALOFT WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL EASTERLIES. UPPER LEVEL SPEED 
CONVERGENCE DOMINATED ACROSS MUCH OF THIS ZONE FROM 14N TO 20N.

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...BROAD 1031 MB HIGH PRES WELL N OF 
AREA HAS RIDGE EXTEND SE TO THE WASHED OUT REMNANTS OF AN OLD 
COLD FRONT N OF 27N AND ALONG ABOUT 130W. TO THE E...A WEAK 
TROUGH ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IS PROMPTING FRESH NW 
BREEZE ALONG THE W COAST S OF PUNTO EUGENIO AS REPORTED BY SHIP 
"DHER" WHILE A  MODERATE SLY BREEZE INSIDE THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT 24-48 HRS. 

FRESH TO STRONG SELY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE SUB TROPICAL SE 
PACIFIC DURING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS CONTINUE TO GENERATE SE 
SWELL ON THE ORDER OF 10-11 SECONDS ENTERING THE AREA 
WATERS...AND WILL MIX WITH LONG PERIOD SRN HEMI SW SWELL TO 
MAINTAIN SEAS GENERALLY 8-9 FT S OF 10N E OF 120W THROUGH THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS...BEFORE THE ASSOCIATED WIND FIELD...AND RESULTANT 
SWELL...BEGIN TO SHIFT FARTHER W BY MID WEEK. 

$$
STRIPLING