000
AXPZ20 KNHC 252206
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN JUL 25 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ANALYZED ALONG 09N79W TO 08N83W TO 09N88W TO 09N103W TO 
13N113W TO 12N118W TO 13N136W TO 12N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM N AND 120 NM S OF AXIS 
E OF 90W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS FROM 103W TO 109W. ISOLATED TO 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 45 NM OF AXIS 
FROM 111W TO 132W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTS OVER NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF BASIN 
FROM MID LEVEL VORTEX NEAR 32N127W S THEN S-SW TO 24N135W...AND 
WAS BEING NUDGED SE BY A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE W...BUT BEING 
HALTED FROM MUCH FORWARD PROGRESS BY A STUBBORN RIDGE ANCHORED 
BY TWO ANTICYCLONES...ONE TO THE E AND ANOTHER TO THE S. FIRST 
UPPER HIGH WAS CENTERED NEAR 28N115W AND EXTENDED N-NE INTO SRN 
CALIFORNIA AND WRN ARIZONA...AND ALSO EXTENDED IN A NARROW RIDGE 
SW...WHERE IT CONNECTED TO A SECOND WEAKER HIGH NEAR 19N143W. 
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDING AIR GENERALLY DOMINATES THIS REGION 
REMAINS N OF 20N W OF 115W AND FROM 16 TO 20N BETWEEN 125W AND 
135W. 

A THIRD UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER W CENTRAL MEXICO WAS AIDING IN 
PRODUCING A BROAD ZONE OF UPPER LEVEL EASTERLIES S OF THE ABOVE 
FEATURES...AND WERE ADVECTING ENORMOUS AMOUNTS OF CONVECTIVE 
DEBRIS AND MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM FAR W PORTIONS OF 
THE ATLC BASIN...CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO WESTWARD ACROSS THE 
TROPICAL EPAC TO 135W. GOOD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW INTO THE S SIDE OF 
THE ITCZ WAS PROVIDING THE FORCING FOR CONVECTION NOTED 
ABOVE...MOSTLY NOTABLY BETWEEN 105W AND 130W. LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC 
TURNING WAS BECOMING NOTICEABLE NEAR THE ITCZ INVOF 101W...WHERE 
SOME COMPUTER MODELS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT 
LOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...BROAD 1031 MB HIGH PRES WELL N OF 
AREA HAS RIDGE EXTEND TO 22N122W.  WEAK TROUGH ALONG BAJA 
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IS PROMPTING FRESH NW BREEZE ON W COAST AND 
MODERATE BREEZE INSIDE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH NEXT 24-48 
HRS. 

LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL UP TO 9 FT CONTINUE 
ENCROACHING E PAC S OF 10N THROUGH NEXT 48 HOURS WITH MODERATE 
TO FRESH SW BREEZE.

$$
STRIPLING