000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240256
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT JUL 24 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0215 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 09N83W TO 12N92W WHERE IT BECOMES DIFFUSE. AXIS THEN 
BEGINS ANEW FROM 13N102W TO 14N117W TO 10N130W TO 10N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 60 NM 
N AND 120 NM S OF AXIS W OF 102W.

...DISCUSSION...
SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTS N-NE TO S-SW ACROSS FAR W 
PORTIONS OF AREA FROM 32N133W TO 17N143W...AND BEYOND...AND IS 
BLOCKED FROM FURTHER EASTWARD MOVEMENT BY BROAD STATIONARY 
ANTICYCLONE NEAR 25N116W...WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING E-NE ACROSS 
CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA. BOTH SYSTEMS MAINTAINING DRY STABLE 
ENVIRONMENTS WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE E OF 128W. WELL 
DEFINED CYCLONIC VORTEX OVER WESTERN TEXAS HAS NARROW TROUGH 
EXTENDING S THROUGH CENTRAL MEXICO. A SMALL ILL-DEFINED 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 24N100W THIS AFTERNOON 
WAS AIDING IN VENTING DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE MEXICAN GULF 
COAST ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD LOW PRES SYSTEM THAT MOVED INLAND 
OVER MEXICO PAST 24 HOURS FROM BAY OF CAMPECHE...AND THIS HIGH 
HAS RECENTLY COLLAPSED...AND WITH IT CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED.  
TO THE S OF THESE FEATURES CONTINUES UPPER LEVEL EASTERLIES FROM 
CENTRAL AMERICA TO 125W...WITH CORE WIND SPEEDS 50-55 KT JUST S 
OF 10N BETWEEN 100W AND 120W. STRONG CONVECTION ALONG CENTRAL 
PORTIONS OF THE ITCZ IS PRODUCING DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER THE ITCZ 
BETWEEN 105W AND 130W. NE TO E FLOW ALOFT EXITING THE W COASTS 
OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA IS AIDING IN SUSTAINING MODERATE 
TO STRONG DIURNAL CONVECTION ALONG THE W SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS 
THAN WILL LIKELY DRIFT OFFSHORE OF THE COASTS DURING THE NEXT 
FEW HOURS.   

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...
HIGH PRES 1032 MB WELL NW OF BASIN HAS RIDGE EXTENDING TO 
18N113W...WHILE AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC GYRE CONTINUES 
ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO SW INTO THE EPAC...E OF 110W...WITH WEAK 
WESTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE EXTENDING ALL THE WAY TO COSTA 
RICA...PANAMA AND COLOMBIA...PRODUCING LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW ALONG 
THE W COASTAL WATERS OF THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COUNTRIES. LLVL 
FLOW BECOME DIFFLUENT N OF 10N BETWEEN 95W AND 100W...LEADING TO 
THE BROKEN ITCZ. S OF THE ITCZ...BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW 
PREVAILS...WITH ZONES OF 20 AND 20-25 KT HELPING TO FUEL STRONG 
CONVECTION W OF 107W. COMPUTER MODELS FORECAST A FRESHENING NW 
BREEZE BEGINNING THIS EVENING ALONG W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA 
AS HIGH PRES DRIFTS E...THAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH 48 
HOURS.   

CROSS EQUATORIAL S TO SW SWELL REACHING 7-10 FT CONTINUES TO 
AFFECT THE DISCUSSION AREA...AND ARE QUICKLY FADING ALONG THE W 
COAST WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...MODERATE PERIOD SE 
SWELL WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE TROPICAL WATERS FOR THE NEXT 48 
HOURS AND MAINTAIN SEAS AT OR ABOVE 8 FT S OF 10N. 

$$
STRIPLING