000
AXPZ20 KNHC 232143
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI JUL 23 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 09N80W TO 14N115W TO 10N132W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS E OF 91W...AND 
60 NM N AND 12 NM S OF AXIS W OF 100W.

...DISCUSSION...
SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES N-NE TO S-SW ACROSS FAR W 
PORTIONS OF AREA FROM 32N135W TO 17N142W...AND BEYOND...AND IS 
BLOCKED FROM FURTHER EASTWARD MOVEMENT BY BROAD STATIONARY 
ANTICYCLONE NEAR 24N117W...WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING E-NE ACROSS 
CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA. BOTH SYSTEMS MAINTAINING DRY STABLE 
ENVIRONMENTS WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE. WELL DEFINED 
CYCLONIC VORTEX OVER WESTERN TEXAS HAS NARROW TROUGH EXTENDING S 
THROUGH CENTRAL MEXICO WITH A SMALL ILL-DEFINED ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 24N100W AIDING IN VENTING DEEP 
CONVECTION ALONG THE MEXICAN GULF COAST ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD  
LOW PRES SYSTEM THAT JUST MOVED INLAND OVER MEXICO FROM BAY OF 
CAMPECHE. TO THE S OF THESE FEATURES CONTINUES UPPER LEVEL 
EASTERLIES...FROM CENTRAL AMERICA TO 130W...WITH CORE WIND 
SPEEDS 50-55 KT JUST S OF 10N BETWEEN 100W AND 120W. STRONG 
CONVECTION ALONG CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE ITCZ IS PRODUCING 
DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER THE ITCZ BETWEEN 100W AND 130W. NE TO E FLOW 
ALOFT EXITING THE W COASTS OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA IS 
AIDING IN SUSTAINING MODERATE TO STRONG DIURNAL CONVECTION ALONG 
THE W SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS AND JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COASTS.   

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...
HIGH PRES 1032 MB WELL NW OF BASIN HAS RIDGE EXTENDING TO 
18N113W...WHILE AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC GYRE CONTINUES 
ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO SW INTO THE EPAC...E OF 110W...WITH WEAK 
WESTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE EXTENDING ALL THE WAY TO COSTA 
RICA...PANAMA AND COLOMBIA...PRODUCING LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW ALONG 
THE W COASTAL WATERS OF THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COUNTRIES. S OF THE 
ITCZ...BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS...WITH ZONES OF 20 AND 
20-25 KT HELPING TO FUEL STRONG CONVECTION BETWEEN 100W AND 
130W. COMPUTER MODELS AREA FORECASTING A FRESHENING NW BREEZE 
EXPECTED TO BEGIN THIS EVENING ALONG W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA 
AS HIGH PRES DRIFTS E.   

CROSS EQUATORIAL S TO SW SWELL REACHING 7-10 FT CONTINUES TO 
AFFECT THE DISCUSSION AREA...AND ARE QUICKLY FADING ALONG THE W 
COAST WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...MODERATE PERIOD SE 
SWELL WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE TROPICAL WATERS FOR THE NEXT 48 
HOURS AND MAINTAIN SEAS AT OR ABOVE 8 FT S OF 10N. 

$$
STRIPLING