000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230931
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI JUL 23 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 09N85W TO 
09N93W TO 13N100W TO 13N116W TO 08N131W TO 08N137W TO 09N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S 
OF THE ITCZ FROM 93W TO 96W AND WITHIN 120/150 NM S OF THE ITCZ 
FROM 116W TO 125W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED JUST INLAND OVER W MEXICO 
NEAR 26N108W EXTENDING A NARROW RIDGE NW ALONG THE SIERRA MADRES 
AND EXTENDING SW FORMING A BROADER RIDGE TO NEAR 18N107W. A 
NARROW ELONGATED MID/UPPER TROUGH LIES OVER FAR NW WATERS FROM 
AN UPPER LOW NEAR 34N128W TO JUST BEYOND 18N140W. THE UPPER 
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND W OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS 
THE NORTH PORTION OF THIS TROUGH BECOMES ABSORBED INTO A MID 
LATITUDE TROUGH N OF THE AREA WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION MOVES W 
OF THE AREA BY SAT. DRY STABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS PREVAIL 
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 110W. UPPER LEVEL 
EASTERLIES DOMINATE THE EPAC S OF 16N FROM CENTRAL AMERICA TO 
133W AND THE E SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. 

A 1032 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS CENTERED WELL NW OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N140W TO 
24N127W. THE AREA N OF 17N W OF 113W IS MARKED BY STABLE AIR AND 
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS. 

DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING 
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60/90 NM ALONG THE 
COAST FROM 18N TO 24N.   

CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL 
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA GENERALLY S OF 10N BETWEEN 80W AND 
130W. IN ADDITION...SE TO S WINDS TO 20 KT ARE EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH SUN IN S CENTRAL WATERS WHERE SEAS SHOULD 
REMAIN IN THE 8-10 FT RANGE S OF 10N THROUGH SUN.

$$
PAW