000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200916
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE JUL 20 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0900 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
15N95W 08N116W 12N123W 07N140W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N TO 15N BETWEEN 93W AND 97W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 07N 
TO 08N BETWEEN 115W AND 117W...FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 116W AND 
119W...AND FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 128W AND 135W.

SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 03N78.5W...AND WITHIN 30 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM 11N86W TO 12N88W TO 13N90W.

SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 17N101W AND 18N103W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 300 NM TO 400 NM ON EITHER 
SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N125W TO 28N127W TO 
20N133W BEYOND 13N140W. ONE CYCLONIC CENTER IS NEAR 28N127W.
A SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER IS NEAR 20N134W. A THIRD CYCLONIC 
CENTER POSSIBLY IS NEAR 14N140W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE ITCZ 
PRECIPITATION THAT IS BETWEEN 128W AND 135W IS BEING ENHANCED
BY THE CYCLONIC FLOW IN THAT AREA. A COMPLETELY SEPARATE
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS ON TOP OF SOUTHERN BAJA 
CALIFORNIA.

UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW CUTS ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE EQUATOR 
TO 20N BETWEEN 80W AND 120W. THIS IS NOT HELPING ANY DEEP 
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP. 

A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 25N124W BEYOND 32N136W...UNDER THE 
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW. 

A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS FROM T.D. SIX-E ALONG 21N126W TO 17N128W
TO 14N129W. THE FORMER DEPRESSION IS NOT FORECAST TO RE-GENERATE.

GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ARE 
PUSHING NORTHERLY SWELLS RANGING FROM 8 TO 10 FEET INTO THE AREA 
THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 117W AND 135W DURING THE 
FORECAST PERIOD. 

LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELLS THAT REACH 11 FT MOVE AS FAR TO THE 
NORTH 25N/26 DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. 

$$
MT