000
AXPZ20 KNHC 192147
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON JUL 19 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS FROM 13N88W TO 08N105W TO 12N121W TO 07N140W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS E OF 
107W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF AXIS FROM 
116W TO 134W. 

...DISCUSSION...
VERY COMPLEX TRANSITIONING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH AN ARRAY OF 
DOUBLE BARREL CYCLONIC VORTICES...ANOTHER DOUBLE ANTICYCLONIC 
GYRES AND A COMBINED DOUBLE BARREL OF ONE OF EACH ALL SPANNING
ACROSS THE E PAC N OF 15N.  MORE FAMILIAR E-NE WIND FLOW ALOFT S 
OF 15N WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE ADVECTING FROM CARIBBEAN SEA UNTO 
E PAC FEEDING SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION ALONG ITCZ E OF 107W AND 
TO LOW PRES 1010 MB AT 15N85W.  

MODERATELY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW ACTS AS SHEAR CUT OFF TO 
CONVECTION CURTAILING ANY TROPICAL ORGANIZATION TO DEVELOP IN 
SURFACE SYSTEMS.  AIR MASS REMAINS FAIRLY DRY AND STABLE N OF 
15N W OF 110W.  MODEL GUIDANCE CHANGES OVERALL UPPER PATTERN 
VERY LITTLE WITH CUT OFF CYCLONIC VORTEX OVER MANZANILLO MEXICO 
EMBEDDED IN BROAD ANTICYCLONE WHICH COVERS FLOW N OF 10N E OF 
120W.  SHARP TROUGH ALONG 130W WITH ANOTHER BROAD ANTICYCLONIC 
GYRE W OF 135W.

AT THE SURFACE...
HIGH PRES CENTER 1037 MB WELL NW OF BASIN HAS RIDGE EXTEND TO 
25N120W WITH VERY DRY AIR MASS UNDER IT.  WEAK OPEN TROUGH... 
REMNANTS OF OLD AND TIRED T.D. SIX-E...STILL LINGER ALONG 125W 
...WITH THE ONLY MOISTURE AVAILABLE UNDER RIDGE.  NO CHANCES OF 
REGENERATION SEEN FOR SYSTEM.  

STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST FORCE 
8-10 FT N SWELL INTO E PAC N OF 25N FROM 118W TO 135W WITHIN 12 
HRS AND EXTENDING BEYOND FORECAST PERIOD. 

WEAK STATIONARY LOW PRES 1010 MB AT 15N95W PROMPT SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG DEEP CONVECTION BUT NO TROPICAL 
ORGANIZATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO ADVERSE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. 
LONG PERIOD SWELLS UP TO 11 FT ENCROACH INTO BASIN ACROSS EQUATOR
SPREADING AS FAR AS 25N THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. 

$$
WALLY BARNES