000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190954
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON JUL 19 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0930 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
14N92W 11N196W 11N107W 13N122W 08N140W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS 
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 89W AND 91W...AND 
FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 95W AND 102W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS 
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N TO 14N BETWEEN 115W AND 116W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 02N TO 05N BETWEEN 77W AND 79W...WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS
OF 7N78.5W...FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 94W AND 98W...FROM 7N TO 8N
BETWEEN 132W AND 133W...AND FROM 07N TO 08N BETWEEN 137W AND
140W.

...DISCUSSION...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH 
OF 15N TO THE WEST OF GUATEMALA AND MEXICO.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 25N124W 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO A 19N128W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
CENTER.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE GOES FROM A 34N140W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER 
BEYOND 28N148W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES
FROM THE AREA THAT IS FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 140W AND 150W
NORTHEASTWARD.

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS ON TOP OF MEXICO 
NEAR 24N105W. CYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS AROUND THIS CENTER COVERS 
THE AREA FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 102W AND 110W.

A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 13N93W IN THE ITCZ.
SOME OF THE AREAS OF PRECIPITATION THAT ARE IN THE ITCZ ARE
TO THE NORTH OF THIS LOW CENTER. THE LOW CENTER DISAPPEARS
IN THE GFS MODEL AFTER 24 HOURS. A TROUGH REMAINS FROM
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SOUTHWESTWARD ABOUT 300 NM.
 
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 22N122W 18N124W 15N124W.
THIS TROUGH IS THE REMNANT OF THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER
FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION IS DETECTED.

LARGE LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELLS ARE CROSSING THE EQUATOR.
SEA HEIGHTS OF 10 FEET ARE FORECAST TO REACH AS FAR AS 12N...
AND SEA HEIGHTS OF 8 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO REACH AS FAR AS 26N 
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
MT