000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190318
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON JUL 19 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS FROM 11N94W TO 07N104W TO 14N117W THEN FROM 10N126W TO 
08N140W.  NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 
150 NM N OF AXIS E OF 101W.

...DISCUSSION...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER SW CONUS HAS STEADY 
E-NE WIND FLOW AROUND ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY.  WINDS ALOFT TURN 
SE W OF 130W AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW W OF 147W APPROACHES. 
COMPLEX CUT OFF CYCLONIC VORTEX OVER CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 24N102W 
EMBEDDED IN MIDST OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW STRUGGLES TO MAINTAIN ITS 
IDENTITY BEING FORCED OUT BY GROWING RIDGE.  LARGE AMOUNT OF  
TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES INTO E PAC FROM CARIBBEAN SEA S OF 21N 
BUT WEAK TURNING WINDS AND DRIER AIR MASS NEAR VORTEX LIMITS 
NORTHWARD DRIFT OF HUMIDITY.  ADVECTED MOISTURE PROMPTS 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION E OF 103W WITH 
HELP OF WEAK LOW PRES 1012 MB NEAR 13N92W...BUT EVEN THAT HAS 
DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY IN LAST 6 HRS AND LACK OF MECHANICAL 
UPLIFT FURTHER W PRECLUDES OTHER SIGNIFICANT BUILD UP OF DEEP
CONVECTION.  FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS N OF 13N W OF 132W. 

AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW PRES REMAINS EMBEDDED IN ITCZ AND IS 
EVENTUALLY ABSORBED IN LESS THAN 48 HRS IN DYNAMICAL MODEL 
SOLUTIONS.

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...
HIGH PRES CENTER 1037 MB WELL NW OF BASIN HAS RIDGE EXTENDING TO 
20N110W.  SMALL AREA OF FRESH TRADES AND 8 FT SEAS FROM 10N-14N 
W OF 136W EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITHIN 12 HRS BELOW 20 KT AND 8 FT. 

LOW PRES CENTER 1013 MB...REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E 
..AT 19N123W DRIFT W AND EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN NEXT 12 
HRS AS SURFACE RIDGE TO ITS NW BUDGES SE.  

LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELLS CROSS EQUATOR NORTHBOUND SPREADING 10 
FT SEAS FAR N AS 10N AND 8 FT SEAS TO 20N BY END OF FORECAST 
PERIOD. 

$$
WALLY BARNES