000
AXPZ20 KNHC 182152
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN JUL 18 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2115 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS FROM 13N87W TO 14N93W TO 08N104W TO 15N116W TO 08N133W TO 
09N140W.  NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 
150 NM OF AXIS E OF 103W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 
120 NM OF AXIS FROM 111W-117W AND W OF 126W.

...DISCUSSION...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER SW CONUS HAS STEADY 
E-NE WIND FLOW AROUND ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY.  WINDS ALOFT TURN 
SE W OF 125W AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW W OF 145W APPROACHES.
COMPLEX CUT OFF CYCLONIC VORTEX EMBEDDED IN MIDST OF 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW NEAR 24N103W STRUGGLES TO MAINTAIN ITS 
IDENTITY.  LARGE AMOUNT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES INTO E PAC 
FROM CARIBBEAN SEA S OF 21N BUT WEAK TURNING WINDS AND DRIER AIR 
MASS NEAR VORTEX LIMITS NORTHWARD DRIFT OF HUMIDITY.  ADVECTED 
MOISTURE PROMPTS NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION E OF 103W WITH 
HELP OF WEAK LOW PRES 1012 MB NEAR 14N94W...BUT LACK OF 
MECHANICAL UPLIFT FURTHER W PRECLUDES OTHER SIGNIFICANT BUILD UP 
OF CONVECTION.  FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS N OF 15N W OF 130W. 

AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW PRES REMAINS EMBEDDED IN ITCZ AND IS 
EVENTUALLY ABSORBED WITHIN 48 HRS IN MOST MODEL GUIDANCE 
SOLUTIONS.

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...
HIGH PRES CENTER 1034 MB WELL NW OF BASIN HAS RIDGE EXTEND TO 
25N122W.  SMALL AREA OF FRESH TRADES AND 8 FT SEAS FROM 10N-15N 
W OF 135W EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITHIN 24 HRS BELOW 20 KT AND 8 FT. 

LOW PRES CENTER 1011 MB...REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E 
..AT 19N122W DRIFT W AND EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN NEXT 48 
HRS AS SURFACE RIDGE TO ITS NW BUDGES SE.  

LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELLS CROSS EQUATOR NORTHBOUND SPREADING 10 
FT SEAS FAR N AS 10N AND 8 FT SEAS TO 20N BY END OF FORECAST 
PERIOD. 

$$
WALLY BARNES