000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180938
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN 18 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0915 UTC.

...ITCZ...
10N84W 12N90W 08N100W 10N116W 11N135W 09N140W.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 02N TO 05N 
BETWEEN LAND AND 79W...FROM 14N TO MEXICO BETWEEN 96W AND 98W...
AND FROM 16N TO 17N BETWEEN 99W AND 101W ALONG THE MEXICO COAST.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
06N TO 11N BETWEEN 100W AND 110W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 110W AND 116W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 08N TO 12N
BETWEEN 123W AND 140W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 34N139W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
CENTER BEYOND 31N140W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE FLOW COVERS 
THE WATERS BETWEEN LAND AND 139W. DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS TO 
THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 12N140W TO 20N128W
BEYOND 34N120W.

THE POST TROPICAL REMNANT LOW OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E
IS A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 19N118W. 
THE WIND SPEEDS NEARLY REACH 20 KT IN THE AREA THAT IS WITHIN
90 NM OF THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CENTER. THE SEA HEIGHTS
IN THAT AREA REACH 8 FEET BECAUSE OF THE SWELL FROM THE 
SOUTHWEST.

A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 11N92W. SCATTERED STRONG 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 95W AND 
97W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N TO 13N 
BETWEEN 90W AND 93W. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN 20 KT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO THE NORTH OF 14N BETWEEN 
94W AND 96W.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS MOVING AROUND 25N103W IN 
MEXICO. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS 
NEAR THIS CYCLONIC FLOW.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W TO THE SOUTH OF 21N.
IT IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD COMPARATIVELY SLOWLY DURING
THE NEXT THREE DAYS...REACHING ONLY 90W AFTER THE NEXT
72 HOURS.

LARGE LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELLS ARE CROSSING THE EQUATOR.
SEA HEIGHTS OF 8 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO REACH AS FAR AS 25N
TO THE EAST OF 136W DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
MT