000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180324
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN 18 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0315 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 13N87W TO 06N100W TO 12N112W TO 10N125W TO 11N133W TO 
0N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 
NM OF AXIS THROUGHOUT. 

...DISCUSSION...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER SW UNITED STATES 
PRODUCE LARGE SCALE EASTERLY FLOW IN ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY 
INDUCING SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER LARGE PORTIONS OF 
E PAC E OF 120W.  WHILE LARGE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS ADVECTED 
INTO BASIN FROM CARIBBEAN SEA...UPPER LEVEL REMAINS ADVERSE TO 
DEEP CONVECTION EXCEPT AS NOTED BELOW.

SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 145W BRING UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENT 
FLOW INTO WESTERN PART OF E PAC WITH SUBSIDING AIR MASS DRYING 
OUT REGION N OF 18N W OF 125W.  

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...
REMNANT LOW PRES OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E 1010 MB STILL 
SPINS NEAR 20N120W.  LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...MORE THAN 500 
NM IN DIAMETER...DEVOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION 
WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER.  ISOLATED TSTMS IN SW QUADRANT IS ALL 
THAT REMAINS OF PREVIOUS CONVECTION.  NOW IN COLDER WATERS AND 
OVERALL ADVERSE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SPELLS DOOM FOR SYSTEM 
WITHIN NEXT 24 HRS.

PREVIOUS LOW PRES NEAR 11N133W DISSIPATED.  ONLY ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION LINGERS IN ITS PLACE.

ANOTHER LOW PRES CENTER 1012 MB AT 10N93W WITH WEAK TROUGH TO 
15N94W DRIFT W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
WITHIN 180 NM NW AND N QUADRANTS FROM CENTER.  HOSTILE 
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT WITH INCREASING EASTERLY WIND SHEAR PRECLUDES 
ANY IMMEDIATE INTENSIFICATION OF SYSTEM WITHIN NEXT 36-48 HRS.

AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH INDUCING WEAK TEHUANTEPEC GAP N WIND EVENT 
AS NOTED IN EARLIER SATELLITE WIND OBSERVATIONS.  EVENT EXPECTED 
TO DWINDLE QUICKLY AS TROUGH MOVES W OF TEHUANTEPEC AND WINDS 
VEER SE WITHIN NEXT 24 HRS. 

LARGE LONG PERIOD S SWELLS MOVING INTO E PAC ACROSS EQUATOR... 
EXPECTED TO REACH AS FAR AS 23N BETWEEN 88W AND 130W WITHIN NEXT 
TWO DAYS.

$$
WALLY BARNES