000
AXPZ20 KNHC 172159
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT 17 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2115 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 13N87W TO 06N100W TO 12N112W TO 10N125W TO 11N133W TO 
0N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 
NM OF AXIS THROUGHOUT. 

...DISCUSSION...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER SW UNITED STATES 
PRODUCE LARGE SCALE EASTERLY FLOW IN ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY 
INDUCING SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER LARGE PORTIONS OF 
E PAC E OF 120W.  WHILE LARGE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS ADVECTED 
INTO BASIN FROM CARIBBEAN SEA...UPPER LEVEL REMAINS ADVERSE TO 
DEEP CONVECTION EXCEPT AS NOTED BELOW.

SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 145W BRING UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENT 
FLOW INTO WESTERN PART OF E PAC WITH SUBSIDING AIR MASS DRYING 
OUT REGION N OF 18N W OF 125W.  

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...
REMNANT LOW PRES OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E 1010 MB STILL 
SPINNING 420 NM SW OF SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.  LARGE 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...MORE THAN 500 NM IN DIAMETER...IS ALMOST 
DEVOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION.  SCATTERED TSTMS OVER 
60 NM AWAY IN SW QUADRANT FROM CENTER IS WHAT REMAINS OF ANY 
CONVECTION.  NOW IN COLDER WATERS AND OVERALL ADVERSE UPPER 
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SPELLS DOOM FOR SYSTEM WITHIN NEXT 24-36 HRS.

SECOND LOW PRES 1012 MB AT 11N133W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM FROM CENTER.  SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN ITCZ 
EXPECTED TO BECOME OPEN TROUGH WITHIN NEXT 24 HRS.

THIRD LOW PRES CENTER 09N92W WITH WEAK TROUGH TO 16N94W DRIFT W 
WITH NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM 
NE AND 90 NM SE QUADRANTS FROM CENTER.  HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT 
ALOFT WITH INCREASING EASTERLY WIND SHEAR PRECLUDES ANY  
IMMEDIATE INTENSIFICATION OF SYSTEM WITHIN NEXT 36-48 HRS.

AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH INDUCING WEAK TEHUANTEPEC GAP N WIND EVENT 
AS NOTED IN EARLIER SATELLITE WIND OBSERVATIONS.  EVENT EXPECTED 
TO DWINDLE AS TROUGH MOVES W OF TEHUANTEPEC AND WINDS VEER SE 
WITHIN NEXT 36-48 HRS. 

LARGE LONG PERIOD S SWELLS MOVING INTO E PAC ACROSS EQUATOR... 
EXPECTED TO REACH AS FAR AS 23N BETWEEN 88W AND 130W WITHIN NEXT 
TWO DAYS.

$$
WALLY BARNES