000
AXPZ20 KNHC 171607
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT 17 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1545 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE AXIS IS LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM 12N86W TO 06N100W TO 
12N112W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 180 NM OF AXIS EAST OF 
95W...BETWEEN 100W TO 105W...AND BETWEEN 110W TO 125W. 

...DISCUSSION...
THE 1009 MB REMNANT LOW OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E IS STILL 
SPINNING ABOUT 400 NM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA.  WHILE IT STILL RETAINS A VERY LARGE...MORE THAN 500 
NM MILE DIAMETER CIRCULATION...DEEP CONVECTION IS RESTRICTED TO 
A COUPLE SMALL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE 
CENTER OF THE CYCLONE.  PEAK WINDS ARE ABOUT 20 KT AND MAX SEAS 
ARE 8 TO 9 FT ON THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  THIS LOW SHOULD 
CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD AT 12-15 KT AND OPEN UP TO A TROUGH IN 
ABOUT TWO DAYS.

A SECOND LOW OF 1011 MB PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 11N131W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN 120 NM THE CENTER OF 
THE LOW.  THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE ABSORBED INTO THE ITCZ 
WITHIN A DAY OR SO.

A TROUGH ALONG 15N93W TO 10N91W IS ASSOCIATED WITH NUMEROUS 
MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 92W 
AND 97W.  AT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS TROUGH...A DISSIPATING 
1011 MB LOW IS BEING ABSORBED WITHIN THE ITCZ.

THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH IS ALSO INDUCING A WEAK TEHUANTEPEC 
GAP WIND EVENT...AS DEPICTED BY AN 0308 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWING A 
FEW 25 KT VECTORS.  THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND DROP 
BELOW OUR 20 KT CRITERION IN 36 TO 48 HOURS.

THE UPPER LEVELS ARE DOMINATED BY A LARGE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED 
OVER THE SW UNITED STATES.  THIS IS PRODUCING LARGE SCALE 
EASTERLY FLOW IN THE UPPER TROPOSPHERE AND INDUCING SIGNIFICANT 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE BASIN.  TOUGH TO SEE ANY TROPICAL 
CYCLONE ACTIVITY OCCURRING IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS ARE BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE 
AREA...POSSIBLY REACHING AS FAR AS 23N BETWEEN 88W AND 130W IN 
THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

$$
LANDSEA