000
AXPZ20 KNHC 171003
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT 17 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
THE 1009 MB REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
SIX-E WAS NEAR 18N115W...MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 10 KT.
20 KT WINDS ARE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE NORTHEASTERN 
SEMICIRCLE AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGE FROM 8 TO 9 FT. SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
18N TO 19N BETWEEN 117W AND 118W. REGENERATION OF THIS SYSTEM
IS NOT EXPECTED.

...THE ITCZ...
08N82W 10N90W 07N96W 08N103W AND FROM 12N116W TO 10N130W TO 
10N140W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
08N TO 09N BETWEEN 91W AND 92W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 97W
AND 101W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
10N TO 12N BETWEEN 110W AND 112W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM A 34N137W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
CENTER TO BEYOND 30N140W. THIS TROUGH IS SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR 
IN SUBSIDENCE.

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS TO THE 
NORTH OF 14N BETWEEN MEXICO AND 123W INCLUDES ONE CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 23N114W...AND A SECOND
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 19N118W.

A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 11N132W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
10N TO 12N BETWEEN 130W AND 136W.

NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N TO 14N 
BETWEEN 87W AND 96W.

A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 09N91W IN THE ITCZ. 
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
08N TO 09N BETWEEN 91W AND 92W. ANY POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS LOW CENTER IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO STRONG 
UPPER LEVEL WINDS. THE CHANCE THAT THIS LOW CENTER MAY BECOME
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS LOW.

CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE 
AREA...POSSIBLY REACHING AS FAR AS 20N BETWEEN 80W AND 135W
DURING THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.

$$
MT