000
AXPZ20 KNHC 162156
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI JUL 16 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
POST TROPICAL REMNANT LOW PRES OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E AT 
18N113W 1008 MB MOVING W-NW AT 10 KT.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS 25 
GUSTS TO 35 KT.  SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
WITHIN 150 NM W SEMICIRCLE.  ALTHOUGH SYSTEM HAS WELL DEFINED 
LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION..IT IS NO LONGER TROPICAL CYCLONE.  
NOT ONLY HAS UPPER LEVEL WIND SHEAR INCREASED...BUT SYSTEM IS 
NOW OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DOOMING ANY CHANCES OF 
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT.

...ITCZ...
AXIS FROM 10N84W TO 08N85W TO 08N93W TO 12N108W TO 10N120W 
TO 12N130W TO 10N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS W OF 115W.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION N OF 06N E OF 88W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PREVIOUSLY IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF BASIN HAS 
RETREATED W AS BROAD ANTICYCLONE AT 27N1126W FORCED IT OUT OF E 
PAC.  LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL CONVERGING WIND FLOW SUBSIDE N 
OF 20N W OF ANTICYCLONE PRODUCING VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS. 
S OF 20N EAST FLOW ADVECTS LARGE AMOUNTS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE 
INTO BASIN AND ITCZ WHERE SEVERAL SURFACE FEATURES CONVERT INTO 
DEEP CONVECTION.  

LOW PRES CENTER 1010 MB AT 12N130W.  SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM SW QUADRANT.  SYSTEM WEAKENED 
UNDER EASTERLY WIND SHEAR AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME OPEN TROUGH 
WITHIN 48 HOURS.

WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN ITCZ ALONG 91W FROM 06N-10N ALSO 
UNDER STRONG EASTERLY WIND SHEAR BUT CARRIES WELL A DEFINED 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...HAS PLENTY OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND 
WATERS REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO FEED INTO MODERATE DEEP CONVECTION 
WITHIN 210 NM W AND 75 NM E OF TROUGH AXIS.  MODEL GUIDANCE LEAN 
MORE TOWARD ADVERSE FACTORS AND DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT 
DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR.

CROSS EQUATORIAL SE SWELLS EXPECTED TO ENCROACH INTO E PAC S OF 
12N FROM 80W-130W LATE TONIGHT AND INCREASE THROUGH FORECAST 
PERIOD.

$$
WALLY BARNES