000
AXPZ20 KNHC 161606
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI JUL 16 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
POST TROPICAL REMNANT LOW OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 18N111W. THE REMNANT LOW IS MOVING 
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ABOUT 10 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. THE MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS ARE 25 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING 
WITHIN 300 NM IN THE W SEMICIRCLE. THE SYSTEM STILL HAS A LARGE 
CIRCULATION...ABOUT 600 NM DIAMETER...THOUGH IT NO LONGER IS A 
TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE ASYMMETRIC CONVECTION IS BEING INDUCED BY 
MODERATE NE VERTICAL SHEAR. REDEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS 
UNLIKELY DUE TO THE VERTICAL SHEAR AND THE SYSTEMS PROGRESSION 
TOWARD COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS LOCATED FROM 10N84W TO 08N89W TO 11N108W TO 
12N128W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 
120 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 117W TO 127W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 05N 
AND 15N E OF 98W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 35N134W CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION CENTER BEYOND 25N140W. THIS TROUGH IS SURROUNDED
BY DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
TO 26N117W AND 22N117W. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG
112W FROM 25N IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 20N.

A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 12N129W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 300 NM W 
SEMICIRCLE. THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO OPEN TO A TROUGH WITHIN THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS.

A NEW SURFACE LOW HAS FORMED NEAR 08N90W WITH AN ESTIMATED 1011 
MB PRESSURE.  WHILE THIS SYSTEM SHOWS SIGNIFICANT TURNING IN 
MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WHICH WARRANTED INITIATING DVORAK 
CLASSIFICATIONS...THE SURFACE CIRCULATION IS STILL EMBEDDED 
WITHIN THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH. BECAUSE OF THE LOW-LATITUDE... 
RATHER LIMITED CONVECTION...AND MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR...LITTLE 
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM.

WHILE MOST OF THE BASIN IS FREE CURRENTLY OF SIGNIFICANT 
SWELL...IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT ON SATURDAY SW SWELL OF UP TO 10 
FT SHOULD BEGIN CROSSING THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 105W AND 135W.

$$
LANDSEA