000
AXPZ20 KNHC 161005
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI JUL 16 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E AT 17/0900 UTC WAS NEAR 
17.2N 109.9W...OR ABOUT 130 MILES/215 KM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF SOCORRO ISLAND...AND ABOUT 395 MILES/635 KM TO THE SOUTH OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 09 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 
IS 1006 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 25 WITH GUSTS 
TO 30 KT. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
16N TO 17N BETWEEN 111W AND 112W. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ...
10N86W TO 08N96W TO 10N105W TO 09N118W TO 12N128W TO 08N134W
TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 90W AND 97W. SCATTERED 
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 09N TO 11N BETWEEN 
117W AND 125W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER 
SIDE 07N132W 08N135W 10N138W.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...10N86W TO 08N96W TO 10N105W
TO 09N118W TO 12N128W TO 08N134W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 05N TO 10N 
BETWEEN 90W AND 97W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS 
ARE FROM 09N TO 11N BETWEEN 117W AND 125W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE 07N132W 08N135W 10N138W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 35N134W CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION CENTER BEYOND 25N140W. THIS TROUGH IS SURROUNDED
BY DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
TO 26N117W AND 22N117W. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG
112W FROM 25N IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 20N.

A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 12N130W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALONG 8N BETWEEN 128W AND 129W.

.NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 89W 
AND 91W ALONG THE COASTS OF EL SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA...AND
FROM 22N TO 23N BETWEEN 106W AND 108W ALONG THE MEXICO COAST.

$$
MT