000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160314
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI JUL 16 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E AT 16.7N 109.0W AT 0300 UTC OR 350 NM 
SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND 430 NM S OF SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA MOVING W-NW AT 7 KT.  ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES 
1006 MB.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED 25 GUSTS TO 35 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 240 NM N 
SEMICIRCLE AND 90 NM SW QUADRANT.  UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW 
MAINTAINS 25 KT THAT KEEP CONVECTION W OF LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
PREVENTING SYMMETRICAL TROPICAL ORGANIZATION.  WIND SHEAR 
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITHIN NEXT 24 HRS BUT SYSTEM ALREADY IS 
ALLOWING OVER MARGINALLY COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND NO 
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED.  REFER TO LATEST 
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/ WTPZ21 
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 09N84W TO 08N92W TO 11N104W TO 09N114W TO 12N127W AND 
FROM TO 08N132W TO 09N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
WITHIN 150 NM N AND 90 NM S OF AXIS FROM 88W TO 96W.

...DISCUSSION...
SHARP DEEP LAYER TROUGH DIGS SW FROM 32N131W TO 16N140W.  WELL 
ANCHORED MID TO UPPER LEVEL BROAD RIDGE PREVENTS ANY FURTHER 
EASTWARD INTRUSION AND KEEPS TROUGH...AND ITS SURFACE REFLECTION 
...QUASI STATIONARY.  VERY DRY AIR MASS N OF 16N W OF 120W DUE 
TO MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDING AIR FLOW.  E OF 120W MOISTURE 
FROM WESTERN CARIBBEAN ADVECTED INTO E PAC BY EASTERLY FLOW ON 
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF LARGE ANTICYCLONE OVER CENTRAL CONUS.  
MOISTURE FEEDING T.D. SIX-E AND ITCZ E OF 96W.    

...ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...
WEAK SURFACE LOW PRES 1010 MB AT 13N129W SQUEEZES GRADIENT 
AGAINST HIGH PRES RIDGE N OF AREA WITH FRESH BREEZE WITHIN 180 
NM AROUND N SEMICIRCLE.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 
150 NM E OF CENTER.  LOW PRES EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT JUST 
S OF DUE W OVER NEXT TWO DAYS AND EVENTUALLY BECOME ABSORBED 
INTO ITCZ SAT NIGHT.
  
CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL ENCROACH INTO E PAC S OF 10N FROM 98W 
TO 134W.  SWELLS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR 9 FT THROUGH FORECAST 
PERIOD AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY BEYOND THAT.   

HIGH PRES CENTER 1033 MB WELL NW OF BASIN HAS RIDGE EXTEND TO 
18N123W...RECEDING W UNDER PRES FROM T.D. SIX-E.  

$$
WALLY BARNES