000
AXPZ20 KNHC 152203
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU JUL 15 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E AT 15.9N 108.2W AT 2100 UTC OR 335 NM 
SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND 475 NM S OF SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA MOVING W-NW AT 05 KT.  ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES 
1006 MB.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED 30 GUSTS TO 40 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 270 NM N 
AND NE QUADRANTS AND WITHIN 150 NM S SEMICIRCLE.  UPPER LEVEL 
EASTERLY FLOW MAINTAINS 25-30 KT THAT KEEP CONVECTION W OF LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION PREVENTING SYMMETRICAL TROPICAL ORGANIZATION.  
WIND SHEAR EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITHIN NEXT 24-36 HRS ALLOWING 
SHORT BURST OF STRENGTHENING BEFORE REACHING COOL SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES BY SAT.  REFER TO LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/ WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 08N83W TO 07N90W TO 11N98W TO 09N113W TO 13N127W TO 
09N134W TO 09N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 
150 NM S OF AXIS E OF 95W.

...DISCUSSION...
SHARP DEEP LAYER TROUGH DIGS SW FROM 32N132W TO 21N140W.  WELL 
ANCHORED MID TO UPPER LEVEL BROAD RIDGE PREVENTS ANY FURTHER 
EASTWARD INTRUSION AND KEEPS TROUGH..AND ITS SURFACE REFLECTION 
...QUASI STATIONARY.  VERY DRY AIR MASS N OF 15N W OF 120W DUE 
TO MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDING AIR FLOW.  E OF 120W MOISTURE 
FROM WESTERN CARIBBEAN ADVECTED INTO E PAC BY EASTERLY FLOW ON 
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF LARGE ANTICYCLONE OVER CENTRAL CONUS.  
MOISTURE FEEDING T.D. SIX-E AND ITCZ E OF 95W.    

...AT THE SURFACE...
WEAK SURFACE LOW PRES 1010 MB AT 13N130W SQUEEZES GRADIENT 
AGAINST HIGH PRES RIDGE N OF AREA WITH FRESH BREEZE WITHIN 240 
NM AROUND N SEMICIRCLE.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 
150 NM E OF CENTER.  LOW PRES EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT JUST 
S OF DUE W OVER NEXT TWO DAYS AND EVENTUALLY BECOME ABSORBED 
INTO ITCZ SAT NIGHT.
  
CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL ENCROACH INTO E PAC S OF 10N FROM 98W 
TO 134W.  SWELLS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR 9 FT THROUGH FORECAST 
PERIOD AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY BEYOND THAT.   

HIGH PRES CENTER 1035 MB WELL NW OF BASIN HAS RIDGE EXTEND TO 
18N125W...RECEDING W UNDER PRES FROM T.D. SIX-E.  

$$
WALLY BARNES