000
AXPZ20 KNHC 151603
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU JUL 15 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E WAS NEAR 15.3N 108.5W AT 
15/1500 UTC OR 325 NM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 465 NM S 
OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVING W-NW AT 05 KT. 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM N AND NE QUADRANTS 
AND WITHIN 150 NM S SEMICIRCLE. UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW ON THE 
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN 
U.S. PLAINS IS PROVIDING A MODEST AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL WIND 
SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM KEEPING CONVECTION ASYMMETRIC AND RATHER 
RAGGED THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...THE 
SHEAR WEAKENS AND FURTHER ORGANIZATION AND GRADUAL STRENGTHENING 
IS ANTICIPATED BEFORE THE SYSTEM REACHES COOLER OCEANIC WATER 
TEMPERATURES TO THE EAST AFTER EARLY SATURDAY. PLEASE READ THE 
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/ 
WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 08N83W TO 08N90W TO 11N97W TO 09N112W TO 
13N127W TO 11N131W TO 09N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 09N BETWEEN 77W AND 86W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 
12N BETWEEN 90W AND 94W. ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 08N 
TO 11N BETWEEN 126W AND 128W.

...DISCUSSION...

TROPICS...
A WEAK SURFACE LOW CONTINUES AT 13N129W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM NE AND E QUADRANTS OF THE LOW. THIS 
LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND 
BECOME ABSORBED WITHIN THE ITCZ BY LATE SUNDAY.
  
NO SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS GREATER THAN 10 FT...EXCEPT FOR THE 
TROPICAL CYCLONE...ARE OCCURRING OR ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING 
THE NEXT TWO DAYS. HOWEVER...BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY SW 
SWELL OF 10 TO 11 FT FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE WILL BE 
ADVECTING ACROSS THE EQUATOR INTO OUR AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY.  
IT IS OF NOTE THAT THE GFS-BASED WAVEWATCH III IS SOMEWHAT 
OVERSTATING SW SWELL S OF PANAMA DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE 
OTHER GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE WEAKER SW FLOW.

SUBTROPICS...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE PATTERN BOTH AT THE 
SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A MIDDLE TO 
UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 34N132W EXTENDS A DEEP LAYER TROUGH ALONG 
30N133W TO 22N140W. THE ASSOCIATED WEAK TROUGH LIES AT THE 
SURFACE FROM 30N129W TO 22N140W. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW 20 
KT W OF THE TROUGH...BUT SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 8 FT 
RANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN NE SWELL. THE SURFACE RIDGE HAS 
BEEN COMPROMISED BY THIS TROUGHING WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING 
FROM 30N125W TO NW OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E NEAR 20N117W. 
ALOFT...AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO EXTENDS 
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA 
BORDER TO A SEPARATE ANTICYCLONE NEAR 21N125W WITH RIDGING 
EXTENDING SW FROM THERE TO 17N132W.

$$
HUFFMAN