000 AXPZ20 KNHC 150925 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC THU JUL 15 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E WAS NEAR 15.2N 108.3W AT 15/0900 UTC..MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 08 KT. THIS POSITION ALSO IS ABOUT 370 MILES/600 KM TO THE SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO...AND ABOUT 540 MILES/875 KM TO THE SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 200 NM NW SEMICIRCLE IS OBSERVED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE SYSTEM IS UNDERGOING MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR...WHICH IS THE CAUSE OF THE ASYMMETRIC CONVECTION. IT IS OF NOTE THAT THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A QUITE LARGE MONSOON GYRE WITH CYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDING ABOUT NEARLY 800 NM IN DIAMETER. ...TROPICAL WAVES... THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS ALONG 102W FROM 20N IN MEXICO SOUTHWARD AT 15/000O UTC IS INDISTINCT NOW. THE WAVE HAS BECOME PART OF THE LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC GYRE IN WHICH TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E IS EMBEDDED. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N TO 22N BETWEEN 105W AND 107W...AND FROM 14N TO 15N BETWEEN 108W AND 109W. ...THE ITCZ... 10N85W 08N90W 09N99W 07N112W 11N126W 08N135W 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 90W AND 92W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 09N TO 18N BETWEEN 98W AND 106W. ...DISCUSSION... THE TROPICS... A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 16N130W 13N129W 10N129W. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 13N129W ALONG THE TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN 129W AND 131W. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR TO PRESENT MUCH THREAT TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. NO SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS THAT ARE GREATER THAN 10 FT... EXCEPT FOR THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...ARE OCCURRING OR ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL REACHING 11 FEET WILL BE PUSHED ACROSS THE EQUATOR INTO OUR AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE BY LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. IT IS OF NOTE THAT THE GFS-BASED WAVEWATCH III IS OVERSTATING SOMEWHAT THE SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF PANAMA DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE WEAKER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE SUBTROPICS... VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE PATTERN BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 34N131W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 28N134W BEYOND 22N140W. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 30N128W TO 27N130W TO 23N137W. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO LESS THAN 20 KT TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH. SEAS HEIGHTS ARE REACHING 8 FEET IN MIXED NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST SWELL. THE SEAS HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE NEAR 8 FEET DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS AND SUBSIDE AFTER THAT. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 27N112W...MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA. ONE TROUGH GOES FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER TOWARD SOUTHERN ARIZONA. ANOTHER TROUGH GOES SOUTHWARD TO 21N114W. $$ MT