000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150322
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED JUL 14 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E CENTERED NEAR 15.2N 107.7W AT 15/0300 
UTC OR 300 NM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MOVING WNW AT 10 KT. 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS.  SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 200 NM NW SEMICIRCLE IS OBSERVED IN 
ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE SYSTEM IS 
UNDERGOING MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR...WHICH IS 
THE CAUSE OF THE ASYMMETRIC CONVECTION.  IT IS OF NOTE THAT THE 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A QUITE LARGE MONSOON 
GYRE WITH CYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDING ABOUT NEARLY 800 NM IN 
DIAMETER.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS N OF 10N ALONG 101W MOVING W AT 10 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 
NM OF WAVE AXIS.  THE WAVE IS BECOMING DIFFICULT TO DISTINGUISH 
FROM THE BROAD CYCLONIC GYRE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E IS 
EMBEDDED WITHIN.  THE WAVE AXIS WAS DETERMINED VIA A COMBINATION 
OF THE SUNY-ALBANY EASTERLY WAVE DIAGNOSTICS AND THE HOVMOLLER 
DIAGRAMS OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ANALYZED ALONG A LINE FROM 
09N83W TO 08N89W TO 15N99W TO 10N104W TO 07N112W TO 12N128W TO 
08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS 
FROM 83W TO 91W.

...DISCUSSION...

TROPICS...
A WEAK SURFACE LOW CONTINUES AT 13N129W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 300 NM S SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. THIS LOW IS 
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.  
AS MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR AND LIMITED VORTICITY TO WORK 
WITH...THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR TO PRESENT MUCH THREAT TO 
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
  
NO SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS GREATER THAN 10 FT...EXCEPT FOR THE 
TROPICAL CYCLONE...ARE OCCURRING OR ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING 
THE NEXT TWO DAYS.  HOWEVER...BY LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SW 
SWELL OF 10 TO 11 FT FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE WILL BE 
ADVECTING ACROSS THE EQUATOR INTO OUR AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY.  
IT IS OF NOTE THAT THE GFS-BASED WAVEWATCH III IS SOMEWHAT 
OVERSTATING SW SWELL S OF PANAMA DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE 
OTHER GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE WEAKER SW FLOW.

SUBTROPICS...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE PATTERN BOTH AT THE 
SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A MIDDLE TO 
UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 34N131W EXTENDS A DEEP LAYER TROUGH TO ITS 
SW INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE ASSOCIATED WEAK TROUGH LIES AT 
THE SURFACE FROM 30N127W TO 26N131W. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW 
20 KT W OF THE TROUGH...BUT SEAS ARE IN THE 8 FT RANGE IN MIXED 
NW AND NE SWELL. SEAS WILL CONTINUE ABOUT 8 FT OVER THE NEXT TWO 
DAYS AND SUBSIDE THEREAFTER. THE SURFACE RIDGE HAS BEEN 
COMPROMISED BY THIS TROUGHING WITH A 1016 MB HIGH CURRENTLY 
CENTERED NEAR 27N124W THAT EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTHEASTWARD TO 
20N115W. ALOFT...AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER N TEXAS EXTENDS A 
RIDGE ALONG THE CALIFORNIA AND NW MEXICO BORDER AND A SEPARATE 
ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 18N126W WITH RIDGING EXTENDING SW FROM THERE 
TO 14N140W.

$$
LANDSEA