000
AXPZ20 KNHC 142206
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED JUL 14 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E CENTERED NEAR 14.9N 107.2W AT 14/2100 
UTC OR 295 NM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MOVING WNW AT 11 KT. 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 200 NM W SEMICIRCLE IS OBSERVED IN ASSOCIATION 
WITH THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE SYSTEM IS UNDERGOING MODERATE 
TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...WHICH IS THE CAUSE OF THE ASYMMETRIC 
CONVECTION.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS N OF 11N ALONG 98W MOVING W AT 10 KT. 
NUMEROUS MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 08N 
BETWEEN 96W AND 104W.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ANALYZED ALONG A LINE FROM 
10N85W TO 14N95W TO 13N102W TO 08N113W TO 13N127W TO 08N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS FROM 85W TO 90W.

...DISCUSSION...

SUBTROPICS...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE PATTERN BOTH AT THE 
SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A MIDDLE TO 
UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 33N130W EXTENDS A DEEP LAYER TROUGH TO ITS 
SW INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE ASSOCIATED WEAK TROUGH LIES AT 
THE SURFACE FROM 30N127W TO 25N134W. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW 
20 KT W OF THE TROUGH...BUT SEAS ARE IN THE 8 FT RANGE IN NW 
SWELL. SEAS WILL CONTINUE ABOUT 8 FT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AND 
SUBSIDE THEREAFTER...WITH THE SWELL DIRECTION CHANGING TO NE 
EARLY THURSDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE HAS BEEN COMPROMISED BY THIS 
TROUGHING WITH A 1016 MB HIGH CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR 28N123W 
THAT EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N122W. ALOFT...AN 
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER W TEXAS EXTENDS A RIDGE SW ACROSS THE 
CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO 25N115W AND THEN TO ANOTHER 
ANTICYCLONE NEAR 16N124W. A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONES LIE 
W OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 35N144W AND 24N148W...RESPECTIVELY.

TROPICS...
A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS AT 13N129W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 300 NM E SEMICIRCLE IS 
OBSERVED. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND 
BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENT ZONE OF THE ITCZ 
ALONG 09N BY SATURDAY. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MOISTURE 
ADVECTING W-NW TO 135W NEAR THE TROUGH...THE UPPER LEVELS ARE 
VERY DRY W OF 120W.
    
MUCH OF THE LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORECAST AREA IS 
CONTAINED E OF 115W WITHIN THE AREA DOMINATED BY THE LARGE 
CYCLONIC GYRE THAT NOW ENCOMPASSES BOTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION 
SIX-E AND THE TROPICAL WAVE. 

A NEW BATCH OF CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL IS PRESENT IN THE S 
CENTRAL WATERS BETWEEN 100W AND 125W WITH SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD 
TO 9 FT BY EARLY THURSDAY. THIS 15-17 SECOND SW SWELL WILL 
QUICKLY MOVE NE...REACHING THE COAST S OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA 
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT SEAS ABOVE 8 FT AREA EXPECTED TO 
REMAIN S OF 14N OVER CENTRAL WATERS AND S OF 06N BETWEEN 81W AND 
90W THROUGH THU.

$$
LANDSEA/HUFFMAN