000
AXPZ20 KNHC 141530
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED JUL 14 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NEAR 15N106W AND ESTIMATED AT 1007 MB 
MOVING W-NW AT ABOUT 10 KT. THIS LOW PRES SYSTEM LIES WITHIN A 
BROAD CYCLONIC GYRE THAT DOMINATES THE AREA N OF 10N BETWEEN 93W 
AND 112W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM NW 
SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. THIS LOW PRES SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO 
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT CONTINUES W-NW OVER THE 
NEXT FEW DAYS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS N OF 09N ALONG 96W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. 
NUMEROUS MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 
17N BETWEEN 94W AND 102W.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ANALYZED ALONG A LINE FROM 
10N85W TO 10N99W TO 08N112W TO 14N126W TO 09N135W TO 09N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 07N BETWEEN 113W 
AND 118W. ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE 
AXIS BETWEEN 123W AND 127W.

...DISCUSSION...

SUBTROPICS...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE PATTERN BOTH AT THE 
SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A MIDDLE TO 
UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 33N130W EXTENDS A DEEP LAYER TROUGH TO ITS 
SW INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE ASSOCIATED WEAK TROUGH LIES AT 
THE SURFACE FROM 30N128W TO 26N135W. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW 
20 KT W OF THE TROUGH...BUT SEAS ARE IN THE 8 TO 9 FT RANGE IN 
NW SWELL. SEAS WILL CONTINUE ABOVE 8 FT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
AND SUBSIDE THEREAFTER...WITH THE SWELL DIRECTION CHANGING TO NE 
EARLY THURSDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE HAS BEEN COMPROMISED BY THIS 
TROUGHING WITH A 1016 MB HIGH CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR 28N123W 
THAT EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N122W. ALOFT...AN 
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER W TEXAS EXTENDS A RIDGE SW ACROSS THE 
CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO 25N115W AND THEN TO ANOTHER 
ANTICYCLONE NEAR 16N124W. A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONES LIE 
W OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 35N144W AND 24N148W...RESPECTIVELY.

TROPICS...
A WEAKENING MID LEVEL LOW NEAR 14N129W IS REFLECTING A SURFACE 
TROUGH FROM 16N128W TO 09N131W. CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF 
THE TROUGH HAS DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS...HOWEVER... 
WITH CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE ITCZ AXIS...ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 123W AND 
127W. THIS MID LEVEL CENTER IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD AND 
BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENT ZONE OF THE ITCZ 
ALONG 09N BY SATURDAY. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MOISTURE 
ADVECTING W-NW TO 135W NEAR THE TROUGH...THE UPPER LEVELS ARE 
VERY DRY W OF 120W.
    
MUCH OF THE LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORECAST AREA IS 
CONTAINED E OF 115W WITHIN THE AREA DOMINATED BY THE LARGE 
CYCLONIC GYRE. THE FORECAST MODELS AGREE ON CONSOLIDATING THE 
MID LEVEL ENERGY WITHIN THIS GYRE...WHICH SUPPORTS BOTH THE LOW 
MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION AND THE TROPICAL 
WAVE...AND PROGRESS IT W-NW OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. 

A NEW BATCH OF CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL IS PRESENT IN THE S 
CENTRAL WATERS BETWEEN 93W AND 123W WITH SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD 
TO 9 FT BY EARLY THURSDAY. THIS 15-17 SECOND SW SWELL WILL 
QUICKLY MOVE NE...REACHING THE COAST S OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA 
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT SEAS ABOVE 8 FT AREA EXPECTED TO 
REMAIN S OF 14N OVER CENTRAL WATERS AND S OF 06N BETWEEN 81W AND 
90W THROUGH THU.

$$
HUFFMAN