000
AXPZ20 KNHC 141011
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED JUL 14 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0915 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 13.2N 102.4W AT 
14/0600 UTC...MOVING WEST 10 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS.
THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO
A TROPICAL CYCLONE FROM 24 HOURS TO 48 HOURS INTO THE FUTURE. 
THIS LOW CENTER LIES WITHIN A BROAD CYCLONIC GYRE THAT DOMINATES 
THE AREA BETWEEN 90W AND 110W. EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO REACH
NEAR 20 KT WITHIN 300 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE FROM THE 
CENTER. SEA HEIGHTS WILL BE LESS THAN 8 FEET AROUND THE LOW 
CENTER...BUT INCREASING TO 9 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW 
CENTER. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N 
TO 15N BETWEEN 105W AND 108W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE FROM 16N TO 19N BETWEEN 101W AND 104W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 15N128W 12N130W 09N134W. SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N
TO 13N BETWEEN 122W AND 125W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 
09N TO 14N BETWEEN 126W AND 133W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS 94W/95W TO THE SOUTH OF 20N. SCATTERED STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 95W AND 
100W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N TO 
19N BETWEEN 95W AND 98W.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM 09N80W TO 10N95W TO 08N114W TO 12N123W TO 08N140W. 
SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 06N TO 08N 
BETWEEN 78W AND 83W...FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 88W AND 90W...
AND FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN 94W AND 96W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER 
THAT IS NEAR 33N129W TO 25N137W BEYOND 20N140W. THIS TROUGH IS 
SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE.

BROAD AND COMPARATIVELY WEAKER UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ALSO
COVERS THE AREA FROM 20N TO 31N BETWEEN 110W AND 120W.

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 24N103W OVER 
MEXICO. THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE AREA FROM 
20N TO THE TEXAS BIG BEND BETWEEN THE MEXICO GULF COAST AND 
108W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO FROM 
30N TO THE U.S.A. BORDER ALONG 109W.

A NEW BATCH OF CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL IS MOVING INTO THE SOUTH 
CENTRAL WATERS...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO RAISE THE SEA HEIGHTS
TO HIGHER THAN 8 FEET OVERNIGHT. THE 16-18 SECOND SOUTHWESTERLY
SWELL WILL QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD...REACHING THE COAST THAT
IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
SEA HEIGHTS HIGHER THAN 8 FT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH
OF 12N IN THE CENTRAL WATERS...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 07N BETWEEN
80W AND 105W THROUGH THURSDAY.

$$
MT