000 AXPZ20 KNHC 140328 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC WED JUL 14 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NEAR 14N102W AND ESTIMATED AT 1007 MB MOVING W-NW AT ABOUT 10 KT. THIS LOW PRES SYSTEM LIES WITHIN A BROAD CYCLONIC GYRE THAT DOMINATES THE AREA BETWEEN 90W AND 110W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM W SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. THIS LOW PRES SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT CONTINUES W-NW OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE N OF 06N ALONG 93W IS MOVING W AT 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM W OF THE WAVE N OF 14N. ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE S OF 13N. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ANALYZED ALONG A LINE FROM 09N84W TO 10N96W TO 07N110W TO 13N126W TO 09N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION LIES WITHIN 75 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 84W AND 88W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 98W AND 103W...WITHIN 450 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 103W AND 111W....AND WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 123W AND 127W. ...DISCUSSION... SUBTROPICS... VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE PATTERN BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 33N128W EXTENDS A DEEP LAYER TROUGH TO ITS SW INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE ASSOCIATED WEAK TROUGH LIES AT THE SURFACE FROM 30N129W TO 26N135W TO 24N140W. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW 20 KT W OF THE TROUGH...BUT SEAS ARE IN THE 8 TO 9 FT RANGE IN NW SWELL. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BY TO 9 FT W OF THE TROUGH OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...WITH THE SWELL DIRECTION CHANGING TO NE ON WED. THE SURFACE RIDGE HAS BEEN COMPROMISED BY THIS TROUGHING. A 1017 MB HIGH CURRENTLY LIES NEAR 25N126W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE SW TO 18N140W. ALOFT...AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER W TEXAS EXTENDS A RIDGE SW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO 25N112W AND THEN TO 11N127W. A PAIR OF ANTICYCLONES LIE W OF THE LOW NEAR 36N144W AND 23N147W...RESPECTIVELY. TROPICS... A WEAKENING MID LEVEL LOW NEAR 14N135W IS REFLECTING A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 09N135W TO 16N129W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH FROM 11N TO 13N AS WELL AS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS E OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 123W AND 127W. THIS MID LEVEL CENTER IS EXPECTED OPEN TO A TROUGH...WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY DRIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE DEEP LAYER LOW MENTIONED IN THE SUBTROPICS SECTION AND ON THE W SIDE OF A MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 13N121W. AS A RESULT...THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. LOOK FOR CONVECTION TO CONTINUE NEAR THE TROUGH INTO WED AS CONDITIONS REMAIN DIFFLUENT ALOFT BUT MAY DIMINISH ON THU AS 20-25 KT E-NE FLOW MOVES OVER THE TROUGH. ASIDE FROM THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE UPPER LEVELS DUE TO THE CONVECTION NEAR THIS SYSTEM...THE UPPER LEVELS ARE VERY DRY W OF 120W. MUCH OF THE LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORECAST AREA IS CONTAINED E OF 112W WITHIN THE AREA DOMINATED BY THE LARGE CYCLONIC GYRE. THE FORECAST MODELS AGREE ON CONSOLIDATING THE MID LEVEL ENERGY WITHIN THIS GYRE...WHICH SUPPORTS BOTH THE LOW MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION AND THE TROPICAL WAVE...AND CARRY IT IT W-NW OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. A NEW BATCH OF CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL IS MOVING INTO S CENTRAL WATERS AND IS EXPECTED TO RAISE SEAS ABOVE 8 FT OVERNIGHT. THIS 16-18 SECOND SW SWELL WILL QUICKLY MOVE NE...REACHING THE COAST S OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY THU AFTERNOON...BUT SEAS ABOVE 8 FT AREA EXPECTED TO REMAIN S OF 12N OVER CENTRAL WATERS AND S OF 07N BETWEEN 81W AND 87W THROUGH THU. $$ SCHAUER