000 AXPZ20 KNHC 132202 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC TUE JUL 13 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NEAR 14N101W AND ESTIMATED AT 1007 MB MOVING W-NW AT ABOUT 10 KT. THIS LOW PRES SYSTEM LIES WITHIN A BROAD CYCLONIC GYRE THAT DOMINATES THE AREA BETWEEN 90W AND 110W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM SW QUADRANT OF ITS CENTER. THIS LOW PRES SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT CONTINUES W-NW OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE N OF 08N ALONG 92W IS MOVING W AT 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION LIES WITHIN 270 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 14N TO 15N AND BETWEEN 90 NM AND 300 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS N OF 16N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 04N TO 14N BETWEEN 89W AND 99W. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ANALYZED ALONG A LINE FROM 08N78W TO 13N100W TO 09N112W TO 12N129W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N AND 90 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 124W AND 128W AS WELL AS ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE THE CONVECTION MENTIONED WITH THE SPECIAL FEATURE WITHIN 330 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 101W AND 110W. ...DISCUSSION... SUBTROPICS... A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 34N128W EXTENDS A DEEP LAYER TROUGH TO ITS SW INTO THE FORECAST AREA. AT THE LOW LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH LIES FROM 30N129W TO 25N135W. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW 20 KT W OF THE TROUGH...BUT SEAS ARE IN THE 8 TO 9 FT RANGE IN NW SWELL. THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER N WATERS IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH THIS TROUGH REMAINING STATIONARY AND SEAS CONTINUING TO BE TO 9 FT W OF THE TROUGH. THE SURFACE RIDGE HAS BEEN COMPROMISED BY THIS TROUGHING. A 1017 MB HIGH CURRENTLY LIES NEAR 29N122W EXTENDING A RIDGE SW TO 21N135W AND THEN TO 21N140W. ALOFT...AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER W TEXAS EXTENDS A RIDGE SW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO 24N111W AND THEN TO 12N122W. ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE LIES SW OF THE LOW NEAR 24N146W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE W OF FORECAST WATERS FROM 30N144W TO THE ANTICYCLONE AND THEN TO 11N154W. TROPICS... A MID LEVEL LOW CENTER NEAR 11N130W IS REFLECTING A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 08N134W TO 15N130W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 09N TO 12N AS WELL AS JUST E OF THE TROUGH WITHIN 120 NM N AND 90 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 124W AND 128W. THIS MID LEVEL CENTER IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTHWARD TOWARD THE DEEP LAYER LOW MENTIONED IN THE SUBTROPICS SECTION AND ON THE W SIDE OF A MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 13N121W. AS A RESULT...THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEAR THE TROUGH INTO WED AS CONDITIONS REMAIN DIFFLUENT ALOFT BUT MAY DIMINISH ON THU AS 20-25 KT E-NE FLOW MOVES OVER THE TROUGH. ASIDE FROM THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE UPPER LEVELS DUE TO THE CONVECTION NEAR THIS SYSTEM...THE UPPER LEVELS ARE VERY DRY W OF 120W. MUCH OF THE LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORECAST AREA IS CONTAINED E OF 112W WITHIN THE AREA DOMINATED BY THE LARGE CYCLONIC GYRE. THE FORECAST MODELS AGREE ON CONSOLIDATING THE MID LEVEL ENERGY WITHIN THIS GYRE...WHICH SUPPORTS BOTH THE LOW MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION AND THE TROPICAL WAVE...AND CARRY IT IT W-NW OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. A NEW BATCH OF CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL IS MOVING INTO S CENTRAL WATERS AND IS EXPECTED TO RAISE SEAS ABOVE 8 FT OVERNIGHT. THIS 16-18 SECOND SW SWELL WILL QUICKLY MOVE NE...REACHING THE COAST S OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY THU AFTERNOON...BUT SEAS ABOVE 8 FT AREA EXPECTED TO REMAIN S OF 10N OVER CENTRAL WATERS AND S OF 06N BETWEEN 80W AND 90W ON THU. $$ SCHAUER