000
AXPZ20 KNHC 131544
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE JUL 13 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

.SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NEAR 12.7N 98.6W AND ESTIMATED AT 1007 
MB...AND IS MOVING W-NW AT ABOUT 10 KT. THE AREA SURROUNDING 
THE LOW HAS BEEN VOID OF SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FOR THE PAST 9 
HOURS BUT EXPECT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT WITHIN 
180 NM OF CENTER OVER THE N SEMICIRCLE WITH MAX SEAS TO 7 FT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED 
WITHIN 180 NM OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THIS LOW PRES MAY 
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MOVES TO A POSITION NEAR 
15.4N 102.8W AT 1200 UTC WED...AND NEAR 16.8N 108.6W AT 1200 UTC 
THU.

...TROPICAL LOW...
 
.A TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED NEAR 12N131W 1010 MB WITH 
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 08N131W THROUGH THE LOW TO 
15N130W. EMBEDDED MOSTLY WITHIN THE ITCZ...SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED OVER THE AREA FROM 08N TO 
15N BETWEEN 124W AND 134W. CURRENTLY WINDS ARE ENHANCED UP TO 20 
KT AS PER EARLIER MORNING SCATTEROMETER PASSES WITHIN ABOUT 180 
NM NW OF THE TROUGH AXIS WITH MAX SEAS OF 8 FT. THE TROUGH IS 
EXPECTED TO DRIFT WESTWARD THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVES IS N OF 09N ALONG 91W MOVING W AT 15 KT. UPPER 
DIFFLUENCE OVER THE SE PACIFIC BETWEEN 90W AND 110W IS ENHANCING 
NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG OVER THE AREA FROM 07N TO 
16N BETWEEN 90W AND 97W.

...ITCZ...

THE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 10N86W TO 12N92W TO 12N98W TO 09N110W TO 
12N130W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 84W AND 86W...AND FROM 09N 
TO 15N BETWEEN 103W AND 107W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 123W AND 128W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IS NEAR 33N128W WITH AN UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING S INTO THE AREA ALONG 30N129W TO 21N136W. 
AT THE LOW LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N130W TO 
26N134W TO 25N140W AND IS MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARDS FOLLOWED BY NE 
WINDS AND SEAS TO 9 FT IN MIXED NE AND NW SWELL. UPPER LEVEL 
DIFFLUENCE IS NOTED FROM 05N TO 15N W OF 124W ON WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY THAT CONTINUES TO ENHANCE CONVECTION AS PREVIOUSLY 
DESCRIBED WITH THE TROUGH AND TROPICAL LOW CENTERED NEAR 
12N131W. THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE FANS NW 
TO 137W. OTHERWISE...THE UPPER LEVELS ARE VERY DRY W OF 120W.
    
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 31N105W WITH AN UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 
25N111W THEN W-SW TO 22N124W. ELSEWHERE...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW 
COVERS THE AREA S OF 20N E OF 114W. AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL LOW 
IS CENTERED NEAR 21N99W AND IS PROGRESSING SLOWLY WESTWARD. 
UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS MOISTURE IS NOTED FROM THE EQUATOR TO 20N 
BETWEEN 86W AND 110W. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ENHANCING 
CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND OVER THE ITCZ E OF 107W.

S TO SW WINDS PERSIST IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE OVER THE TROPICAL 
WATERS FROM 04N TO 11N BETWEEN 93W AND 107W WITH SEAS 8 TO 11 FT 
IN SW SWELL.

$$
HUFFMAN