000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130938
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE JUL 13 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0845 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 12.3N 97.3W...
MOVING WEST 5 TO 10 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. EXPECT 
NORTHERLY WINDS RANGING FROM 15 KT TO 20 KT WITHIN 180 NM OF THE 
CENTER IN THE NORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE...AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 
7 FEET. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 13N TO 14N BETWEEN 99W AND 100W. 
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 15N 
BETWEEN 95W AND 102W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS LOW PRESSURE 
CENTER MAY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MOVES TO
A POSITION THAT IS NEAR 13.5N 101.5W AT 14/0600 UTC...AND TO 
15.5N 106W AT 15/0000 UTC.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 129W FROM 8N TO 15N MOVING WEST
5 TO 10 KT. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS IN THE VICINITY 6 TO
12 HOURS EARLIER. THE LOW CENTER WEAKENED LEAVING THE TROUGH.
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 7N TO 14N BETWEEN
123W AND 136W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 19N88W IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
TO SOUTHERN GUATEMALA NEAR 14N90W INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN 
NEAR 8N90W...MOVING WESTWARD 20 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA FROM 15N TO 17N 
BETWEEN 89W AND 92W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS 
ALSO ARE IN THE WATERS JUST OFFSHORE BETWEEN EL SALVADOR AND 
MEXICO...FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 90W AND 93W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 94W/95W TO THE SOUTH OF 16N MOVING 
WESTWARD 20 KT. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE CAUGHT
UP MORE IN THE COMPARATIVELY LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW THAT
MOVES AROUND THE 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
12.3N 97.3W.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM PANAMA NEAR 10N84W TO 10N88W...TO 09N98W TO 07N110W...TO 
10N125W...TO 07134W...TO 06N140W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 07N TO 08N BETWEEN 87W AND 89W...AND
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 10N105W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 91W AND 95W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE 
ELSEWHERE FROM 5N TO 17N BETWEEN 88W AND 107W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 33N127W TO 27N131W AND 20N138W. THIS TROUGH IS 
SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE.

BROAD AND COMPARATIVELY WEAKER UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ALSO
COVERS THE AREA FROM 20N TO 31N BETWEEN 110W AND 120W.

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 24N104W
OVER MEXICO. PRECIPITATION IN MEXICO COVERS THE AREA FROM
24N TO 25N BETWEEN 104W AND 105W.

SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WHOSE SPEEDS RANGE FROM 15 KT 
TO 20 KT PERSIST IN THE TROPICAL WATERS FROM 04N TO 10N BETWEEN 
88W AND 107W. SEA HEIGHTS IN THIS AREA REACH 8 FT IN SOUTHERLY
SWELL.

$$
MT