000 AXPZ20 KNHC 121603 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC MON JUL 12 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS N OF 9N ALONG 90W IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS ENTERING THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES THAT COVERS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED BELOW UNDER ITCZ. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OVER GUATEMALA AND THE WESTERN SECTION OF EL SALVADOR. THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST CROSSING THE BORDER OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA...MOVING W ABOUT 16 KT. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS ARE OVER THE NORTH SIDE OF THE COSTA RICAN AND PANAMANIAN BORDER. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN COSTA RICA AND NORTHERN PANAMA. SCATTERED TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR ELSEWHERE ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA AND PANAMA THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HRS AS VERY DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TO THE E OF THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES REMAINS IN PLACE. ...ITCZ... THE AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N86W 10N99W 8N107W 10N117W 13N130W 7N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 90W-93W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 93W96W. ...DISCUSSION... W OF 100W... A MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MOVING SW IS JUST N OF THE AREA NEAR 34N126W WITH A TROUGH SW TO 25N129W. THE SURFACE REELECTION IS ANALYZED AS A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 33N124W WITH A TROUGH SW TO 28N131W TO 26N140W. MODEL GUIDANCE FORECASTS THE MID/UPPER LOW TO MOVE TO NEAR 31N132W IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...WHILE THE SURFACE LOW DISSIPATES AS IT MOVES SE. A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE LOCATED E OF THE AREA OVER FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS WNW TO ACROSS THE SW U.S. AND TO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL ANTICYLONE MOVING W 15 KT IS NEAR 23N125W WITH A RIDGE SSE TO 15N122W. ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA THROUGH 29N140W...AND REACHES TO NEAR 23N131W. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT MOSTLY MODERATE SUBSIDENCE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA W OF 120W MAINTAINING RATHER STABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AS EVIDENT BY THE AREAS OF OVERCAST TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS N OF 20N. THE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING WESTWARD TO THE E OF 110W. OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA...A MID/UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N115W TO 18N118W TO 14N122W. MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS EVIDENT N OF 15N BETWEEN 110W AND 120W ...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MOSITURE SPREADING NW OVER AND ALONG THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK 106 MB HIGH IS NEAR 25N125W WITH A RIDGE SE TO 22N115W. WEAK HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 21N AND W OF 117W.W. A NEARLY WEAK 1010 MB LOW IS NEAR 13N130W. SLIGHT DIFFLUENCE ALOFT FROM 9N TO 14N BETWEEN 125W AND 139W IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM IN THE NE QUADRANT OF THE LOW. UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS MOSITURE FROM THIS CONVECTION IS BEING ADVECTED WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER LEVEL EASTERLIES TO NEAR 139W. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HRS WITH ASSOCIATED INITIAL NE-E WINDS OF 20-25 KT FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY 48 HRS. E OF 100W... A MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION E OF THE AREA OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE EXTENDS A TROUGH W TO 21N98W. TO ITS S...A SMALL MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. UPPER LEVEL MODERATE ELY FLOW IS PRESENT TO THE S OF THE ANTICYCLONE...AND ARE ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP CONVECTION RELATED TO THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES OVER MUCH OF THIS AREA W TO BEYOND 100W. AT THE SURFACE A 1009 MB LOW IS NEAR 12N96W MOVING WNW 6 KT. S TO SW WINDS PERSIST IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE OVER THE TROPICAL WATERS S OF 7N BETWEEN 85W AND 105W WITH SEAS TO 8 FT IN S SWELL. $$ AGUIRRE